Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
14%
73%
TOR winsOTT wins
Ottawa Senators
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Jake SandersonD · #85 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 23:12 | 0.11 | 79.0% | +7.2 |
 Thomas ChabotD · #72 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 21:54 | 0.16 | 86.6% | +32.7 |
 Artem ZubD · #2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 20:23 | 0.05 | 72.3% | 0.0 |
 Jordan SpenceD · #10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 18:40 | 0.07 | 34.0% | 0.0 |
 Tim StützleC · #18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18:31 | 0.12 | 54.3% | +7.2 |
 Drake BathersonRW · #19 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 17:46 | 0.47 | 61.5% | +33.9 |
 Shane PintoC · #12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17:34 | 0.69 | 74.0% | 0.0 |
 Michael AmadioRW · #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:00 | 0.53 | 73.0% | 0.0 |
 Tyler KlevenD · #43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 16:46 | 0.01 | 28.7% | 0.0 |
 Dylan CozensC · #24 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 16:23 | 0.35 | 73.4% | +39.9 |
 Nick JensenD · #3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 1 | 16:20 | 0.18 | 88.3% | 0.0 |
 Brady TkachukLW · #7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 15:37 | 0.30 | 79.1% | +15.7 |
 Claude GirouxRW · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:15 | 0.11 | 72.2% | 0.0 |
 Ridly GreigC · #71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13:43 | 0.21 | 43.6% | 0.0 |
 Stephen HallidayC · #83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:06 | 0.14 | 55.6% | 0.0 |
 Nick CousinsC · #21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:50 | 0.03 | 68.8% | 0.0 |
 Lars EllerC · #89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:46 | 0.05 | 49.9% | 0.0 |
 Fabian ZetterlundLW · #20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 10:14 | 0.11 | 81.3% | +17.0 |
 Linus Ullmark#35 | W | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 1.80 | −0.2 | 60:00 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Jake McCabeD · #22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:46 | 0.02 | 31.1% | +12.4 |
 Morgan RiellyD · #44 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 21:01 | 0.14 | 48.3% | +12.4 |
 Brandon CarloD · #25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 19:50 | 0.09 | 57.9% | 0.0 |
 Troy StecherD · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 18:00 | 0.02 | 22.8% | 0.0 |
 Auston MatthewsC · #34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 2 | 17:55 | 0.21 | 35.6% | +12.4 |
 Simon BenoitD · #2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 17:51 | 0.02 | 10.7% | 0.0 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · #95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 1 | 17:27 | 0.02 | 12.8% | 0.0 |
 Matthew KniesLW · #23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 17:07 | 0.00 | 28.9% | 0.0 |
 Matias MaccelliLW · #63 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16:47 | 0.01 | 41.3% | +16.1 |
 William NylanderRW · #88 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 16:37 | 0.61 | 42.7% | +16.1 |
 Nicolas RoyC · #55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0.05 | 21.2% | 0.0 |
 John TavaresC · #91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 0.04 | 25.0% | 0.0 |
 Scott LaughtonC · #24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14:13 | 0.02 | 53.3% | +16.1 |
 Bobby McMannC · #74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 13:53 | 0.30 | 21.0% | 0.0 |
 Easton CowanRW · #53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:34 | 0.08 | 31.3% | 0.0 |
 Dakota JoshuaC · #81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:00 | 0.00 | 33.8% | 0.0 |
 Max DomiC · #11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 11:57 | 0.01 | 32.8% | 0.0 |
 Nick RobertsonLW · #89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 10:42 | 0.15 | 33.3% | 0.0 |
 Anthony Stolarz#41 | – | 12 | 12 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.08 | +1.1 | 23:54 |
 Joseph Woll#60 | L | 28 | 23 | 5 | .821 | 2.59 | −2.4 | 35:50 |