Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
14%
73%
TOR winsOTT wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against OTT's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Giroux–Batherson–Stützle | Tkachuk–Cozens–Greig | Cousins–Amadio–Pinto | Eller–Zetterlund–Halliday | Sanderson–Zub | Spence–Kleven | Jensen–Chabot | Chabot–Spence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavares–Nylander–Maccelli | 1:180.00–0.34 | 2:510.00–0.10 | 2:110.08–0.30 | 4:400.04–0.46 | 3:440.07–0.45 | |||
| Domi–Matthews–Knies | 4:080.00–0.24 | 1:000.17–0.04 | 3:000.17–0.42 | 3:090.00–0.07 | ||||
| Roy–McMann–Cowan | 1:010.03–0.00 | 2:010.00–0.27 | 1:420.00–0.04 | 0:580.00–0.09 | 4:400.04–0.29 | |||
| Laughton–Joshua–Robertson | 0:540.00–0.00 | 1:570.00–0.29 | 2:030.00–0.05 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 2:480.15–0.00 | 1:550.00–0.33 | ||
| Laughton–Joshua–Knies | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | ||||
| Joshua–Roy–Knies | 0:510.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Domi–Matthews–McMann | 0:370.04–0.00 | 0:550.05–0.00 | ||||||
| Tavares–Robertson–Maccelli | 0:320.01–0.00 | |||||||
| Domi–McMann–Cowan | ||||||||
| Rielly–Carlo | 1:030.01–0.09 | 4:090.13–0.05 | 3:180.17–0.33 | 2:120.00–0.11 | 6:130.25–0.26 | 3:230.53–0.03 | 2:140.01–0.22 | |
| McCabe–Stecher | 5:100.00–0.27 | 2:230.04–0.15 | 0:580.00–0.00 | 2:570.01–0.46 | 2:470.17–0.14 | 5:290.04–0.17 | 0:310.00–0.00 | |
| Ekman-Larsson–Benoit | 2:480.00–0.27 | 2:440.00–0.10 | 1:300.04–0.03 | 1:140.03–0.03 | 2:590.04–0.21 | 4:230.04–0.03 | 3:070.00–0.37 | |
| McCabe–Benoit | 0:340.00–0.13 | 1:360.00–0.13 | ||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Rielly | 0:360.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Carlo–Benoit | 0:380.06–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TOROTTFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Jake SandersonOTT | 27 | 23:12 | 0:52 | 1:49 | 3 | 4 |
 Jake McCabeTOR | 29 | 22:46 | 0:47 | 1:47 | 1 | 5 |
 Thomas ChabotOTT | 32 | 21:54 | 0:41 | 1:32 | 1 | 2 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 29 | 21:01 | 0:43 | 1:08 | 8 | 2 |
 Artem ZubOTT | 27 | 20:23 | 0:45 | 1:35 | 1 | 4 |
 Brandon CarloTOR | 27 | 19:50 | 0:44 | 1:47 | 3 | 4 |
 Jordan SpenceOTT | 23 | 18:40 | 0:49 | 1:56 | 2 | 0 |
 Tim StützleOTT | 25 | 18:31 | 0:44 | 1:15 | 4 | 0 |
 Troy StecherTOR | 27 | 18:00 | 0:40 | 1:10 | 1 | 2 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 24 | 17:55 | 0:45 | 1:46 | 4 | 3 |
 Simon BenoitTOR | 28 | 17:51 | 0:38 | 1:39 | 0 | 3 |
 Drake BathersonOTT | 23 | 17:46 | 0:46 | 1:15 | 4 | 1 |
 Shane PintoOTT | 25 | 17:34 | 0:42 | 1:08 | 5 | 1 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR | 25 | 17:27 | 0:42 | 2:01 | 2 | 3 |
 Matthew KniesTOR | 24 | 17:07 | 0:43 | 1:09 | 3 | 4 |
 Michael AmadioOTT | 25 | 17:00 | 0:41 | 1:24 | 3 | 2 |
 Matias MaccelliTOR | 19 | 16:47 | 0:53 | 1:37 | 3 | 0 |
 Tyler KlevenOTT | 22 | 16:46 | 0:46 | 1:29 | 2 | 1 |
 William NylanderTOR | 22 | 16:37 | 0:45 | 1:45 | 8 | 0 |
 Dylan CozensOTT | 24 | 16:23 | 0:41 | 1:29 | 2 | 5 |
 Nick JensenOTT | 27 | 16:20 | 0:36 | 1:22 | 1 | 1 |
 Nicolas RoyTOR | 20 | 16:08 | 0:48 | 1:07 | 0 | 4 |
 John TavaresTOR | 19 | 15:37 | 0:49 | 1:42 | 6 | 0 |
 Brady TkachukOTT | 23 | 15:37 | 0:41 | 1:31 | 2 | 5 |
 Claude GirouxOTT | 25 | 15:15 | 0:37 | 1:09 | 3 | 5 |
 Scott LaughtonTOR | 21 | 14:13 | 0:41 | 1:18 | 0 | 5 |
 Bobby McMannTOR | 18 | 13:53 | 0:46 | 1:07 | 2 | 4 |
 Ridly GreigOTT | 22 | 13:43 | 0:37 | 1:22 | 0 | 4 |
 Easton CowanTOR | 16 | 13:34 | 0:51 | 1:19 | 0 | 2 |
 Stephen HallidayOTT | 19 | 12:06 | 0:38 | 1:07 | 1 | 0 |
 Dakota JoshuaTOR | 19 | 12:00 | 0:38 | 0:59 | 0 | 0 |
 Max DomiTOR | 18 | 11:57 | 0:40 | 1:03 | 0 | 2 |
 Nick CousinsOTT | 20 | 11:50 | 0:36 | 0:58 | 4 | 1 |
 Lars EllerOTT | 15 | 10:46 | 0:43 | 1:10 | 0 | 2 |
 Nick RobertsonTOR | 15 | 10:42 | 0:43 | 1:03 | 1 | 0 |
 Fabian ZetterlundOTT | 16 | 10:14 | 0:38 | 1:06 | 1 | 0 |