Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 410 | 120 | 15 | 635 |
| TBL | 014 | 112 | 112 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Owen Power · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 6:15BUFJosh NorrisAssists: Josh Doan, Zach Metsa · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 8:18BUFJosh NorrisGWGAssists: Bowen Byram, Zach Benson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 15:06BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Peyton Krebs, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–0
- P2 1:54BUFZach MetsaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–0
- P2 16:03TBLDominic JamesAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
- P3 3:43BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–1
- P3 5:27TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Darren Raddysh · Slap, 0.04 xG6–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 10:44BUFZach Benson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:47TBLBrayden Point: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:47BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:26TBLEmil Lilleberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:10TBLJake Guentzel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:03TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:03BUFMattias Samuelsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:28BUFAlex Tuch: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:28TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:28BUFMichael Kesselring: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:02TBLJake Guentzel: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
- P3 2:02TBLJake Guentzel: Abusive language10 min
- P3 6:23TBLDarren Raddysh: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:48TBLAnthony Cirelli: Interference2 min
- P3 17:12BUFMichael Kesselring: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Krebs7:42
xG 0.80–0.59 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn7:39
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Norris – Doan – Ostlund7:29
xG 0.15–0.35 (29%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Malenstyn – Kozak – Benson8:48
xG 0.16–0.62 (21%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin9:41
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Byram – Power6:19
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Power – Metsa2:19
xG 0.42–0.37 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Hagel – James4:02
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves4:55
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel3:01
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel4:40
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – D'Astous4:20
xG 0.63–0.24 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- D'Astous – Lilleberg7:21
xG 0.38–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh2:32
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).