Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
30%
56%
TBL winsBUF wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against BUF's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Malenstyn–Kozak–Benson | Tuch–Thompson–Krebs | Zucker–McLeod–Quinn | Norris–Doan–Ostlund | Samuelsson–Dahlin | Byram–Power | Dahlin–Metsa | Samuelsson–Kesselring | Kesselring–Power | Samuelsson–Power | Power–Metsa | Byram–Metsa | Dahlin–Power | Samuelsson–Byram | Samuelsson–Metsa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gourde–Girgensons–Holmberg | 4:290.19–0.45 | 1:330.07–0.00 | 0:360.06–0.00 | 1:310.00–0.22 | 1:140.05–0.18 | 2:040.07–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.09 | 1:500.12–0.01 | 0:300.08–0.00 | ||||||
| Kucherov–Point–Goncalves | 1:130.16–0.00 | 2:280.00–0.00 | 2:350.08–0.00 | 1:450.00–0.14 | 0:330.16–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Guentzel–Cirelli–Hagel | 3:260.28–0.27 | 0:400.01–0.00 | 1:420.12–0.08 | 1:110.09–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.26 | ||||||||||
| Bjorkstrand–Hagel–James | 2:050.23–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:550.06–0.00 | 0:370.06–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Kucherov–Point–Hagel | 0:450.05–0.00 | 1:440.00–0.08 | 0:580.03–0.08 | 0:540.01–0.00 | 0:380.04–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Bjorkstrand–Holmberg–James | 1:020.13–0.00 | 0:350.05–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Kucherov–Point–Cirelli | 0:360.00–0.12 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.12 | 0:350.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Guentzel–Bjorkstrand–James | 1:060.01–0.00 | 1:060.01–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Bjorkstrand–Goncalves–James | 0:430.07–0.00 | 0:590.07–0.05 | |||||||||||||
| Bjorkstrand–Cirelli–James | 0:430.00–0.16 | ||||||||||||||
| Raddysh–Moser | 1:420.02–0.00 | 1:390.09–0.04 | 2:160.00–0.12 | 2:340.15–0.00 | 2:300.01–0.12 | 3:080.16–0.14 | 1:030.01–0.00 | 0:300.08–0.00 | |||||||
| McDonagh–Cernak | 1:000.15–0.00 | 2:150.05–0.40 | 1:510.09–0.26 | 1:090.06–0.00 | 2:160.08–0.22 | 1:390.14–0.18 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:020.06–0.00 | 0:350.05–0.00 | 1:080.10–0.26 | |||||
| D'Astous–Lilleberg | 1:280.13–0.00 | 2:020.06–0.01 | 2:040.00–0.01 | 0:500.00–0.01 | 0:560.00–0.00 | 1:420.00–0.00 | 1:090.06–0.01 | 1:200.19–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Hedman–D'Astous | 1:220.23–0.00 | 1:150.19–0.02 | 1:060.18–0.00 | 1:000.23–0.01 | 0:330.16–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Hedman–Lilleberg | 1:130.01–0.00 | 0:400.06–0.00 | 0:330.06–0.00 | 0:370.08–0.00 | 1:060.01–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Hedman–Raddysh | 1:230.07–0.03 | 0:430.03–0.03 | 1:060.07–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| McDonagh–Lilleberg | 0:310.00–0.14 | 0:400.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TBLBUFFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 29 | 24:32 | 0:51 | 1:33 | 7 | 4 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 28 | 24:08 | 0:52 | 2:42 | 3 | 6 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 25 | 22:45 | 0:55 | 1:54 | 3 | 6 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 21 | 21:18 | 1:01 | 2:06 | 5 | 0 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 28 | 21:05 | 0:45 | 2:26 | 5 | 4 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 27 | 20:21 | 0:45 | 1:40 | 5 | 7 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 21 | 20:11 | 0:58 | 1:56 | 6 | 1 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 27 | 19:59 | 0:44 | 1:44 | 4 | 5 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 25 | 18:15 | 0:44 | 1:22 | 3 | 4 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 20 | 17:52 | 0:54 | 1:54 | 7 | 1 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 22 | 16:53 | 0:46 | 1:38 | 3 | 3 |
 Emil LillebergTBL | 21 | 16:45 | 0:48 | 1:49 | 0 | 3 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandTBL | 18 | 16:24 | 0:55 | 2:32 | 3 | 0 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 21 | 16:16 | 0:46 | 1:16 | 0 | 6 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 24 | 16:08 | 0:40 | 1:32 | 5 | 4 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 20 | 16:00 | 0:48 | 1:47 | 3 | 0 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 21 | 15:59 | 0:46 | 1:44 | 0 | 6 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousTBL | 18 | 15:50 | 0:53 | 1:25 | 2 | 2 |
 J.J. MoserTBL | 20 | 15:46 | 0:47 | 1:30 | 2 | 2 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsTBL | 23 | 15:03 | 0:39 | 1:10 | 0 | 6 |
 Josh NorrisBUF | 22 | 15:03 | 0:41 | 1:18 | 5 | 4 |
 Noah OstlundBUF | 20 | 14:46 | 0:44 | 1:26 | 2 | 3 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 21 | 14:39 | 0:42 | 1:12 | 0 | 6 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 20 | 14:21 | 0:43 | 1:21 | 4 | 5 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 22 | 14:01 | 0:38 | 1:12 | 6 | 5 |
 Pontus HolmbergTBL | 20 | 13:52 | 0:42 | 1:10 | 0 | 3 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 19 | 13:39 | 0:43 | 1:26 | 0 | 4 |
 Zach MetsaBUF | 18 | 13:08 | 0:44 | 1:14 | 0 | 2 |
 Dominic JamesTBL | 17 | 13:06 | 0:46 | 1:14 | 3 | 1 |
 Tyson KozakBUF | 19 | 13:04 | 0:41 | 1:39 | 0 | 5 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 16 | 13:02 | 0:49 | 1:54 | 3 | 2 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 19 | 12:26 | 0:39 | 1:11 | 0 | 5 |
 Jason ZuckerBUF | 17 | 12:05 | 0:43 | 1:04 | 5 | 5 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 18 | 10:59 | 0:37 | 1:10 | 1 | 2 |
 Michael KesselringBUF | 15 | 8:40 | 0:35 | 0:57 | 2 | 3 |
 Gage GoncalvesTBL | 11 | 8:17 | 0:45 | 1:36 | 2 | 1 |