Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Play-by-play
Model-basedEvery event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.
- P1 0:00Period start
- P1 0:51Shot by Girgensons, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 4:43Shot by Samuelsson, saved by Vasilevskiy
- P1 4:50Shot by Quinn, saved by Vasilevskiy
- P1 5:25Goal by Dahlin (Power)+15 pts WP
On ice: TBL McDonagh, Bjorkstrand, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous · BUF Zucker, McLeod, Dahlin, Quinn, Power
- P1 5:42Shot by Kucherov, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 6:15Goal by Norris (Doan, Metsa)+13 pts WP
On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Bjorkstrand, Lilleberg, James · BUF Norris, Doan, Power, Ostlund, Metsa
- P1 6:43Shot by Moser, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 7:12Shot by Guentzel, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 7:21Shot by Hagel, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 8:18Goal by Norris (Byram, Benson)+10 pts WP
On ice: TBL Kucherov, Point, Raddysh, Goncalves, Moser · BUF Norris, Byram, Doan, Power, Benson
- P1 8:36Shot by Hagel, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 9:40Shot by Guentzel, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 10:40Shot by Goncalves, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 10:44Benson: Cross checking (2 min)
On ice: TBL Hedman, Bjorkstrand, D'Astous, Goncalves, James · BUF Malenstyn, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Kozak, Benson
- P1 10:51Shot by Guentzel, saved by Luukkonen5v4
- P1 12:44Shot by Cirelli, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 12:51Shot by Hagel, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 13:36Shot by Doan, saved by Vasilevskiy
- P1 15:06Goal by Thompson (Krebs, Dahlin)+6 pts WP
On ice: TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Girgensons, Cernak, Holmberg · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Krebs
- P1 16:24Shot by Doan, saved by Vasilevskiy
- P1 17:55Shot by Lilleberg, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 18:07Shot by Tuch, saved by Vasilevskiy
- P1 19:07Shot by Goncalves, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 19:23Shot by Moser, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 19:42Shot by McLeod, saved by Vasilevskiy
- P1 0:00Period end
- P2 0:00Period start
- P2 0:48Shot by Thompson, saved by Vasilevskiy
- P2 0:58Shot by Byram, saved by Vasilevskiy
- P2 1:13Shot by Power, saved by Vasilevskiy
- P2 1:29Shot by Hagel, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 1:54Goal by Metsa, unassisted+2 pts WP
On ice: TBL Hedman, Guentzel, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous · BUF Zucker, Byram, Quinn, Kozak, Metsa
- P2 2:20Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 2:39Shot by Raddysh, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 3:13Shot by Quinn, saved by Johansson
- P2 3:19Shot by Power, saved by Johansson
- P2 3:31Shot by Girgensons, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 5:47Point: Slashing (2 min)
On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Cernak, Hagel · BUF McLeod, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Doan, Ostlund
- P2 5:47Dahlin: Cross checking (2 min)
On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Cernak, Hagel · BUF McLeod, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Doan, Ostlund
- P2 6:06Shot by McLeod, saved by Johansson4v4
- P2 6:50Shot by Thompson, saved by Johansson4v4
- P2 7:35Shot by Metsa, saved by Johansson4v4
- P2 7:40Shot by Metsa, saved by Johansson4v4
- P2 10:18Shot by Thompson, saved by Johansson
- P2 10:26Lilleberg: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Cirelli, Moser, Lilleberg · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Krebs
- P2 10:30Shot by Zucker, saved by Johansson4v5
- P2 11:12Shot by Dahlin, saved by Johansson4v5
- P2 12:04Shot by Tuch, saved by Johansson4v5
- P2 12:10Guentzel: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)4v5
On ice: TBL Hedman, Guentzel, Hagel, Moser · BUF Tuch, McLeod, Byram, Quinn, Ostlund
- P2 12:29Shot by Thompson, saved by Johansson4v5
- P2 12:44Shot by Thompson, saved by Johansson4v5
- P2 13:22Shot by Tuch, saved by Johansson4v5
- P2 15:28Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 15:35Shot by Kucherov, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 16:03Goal by James (Bjorkstrand, Hedman)+1 pts WP
On ice: TBL Hedman, Bjorkstrand, Raddysh, Holmberg, James · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Power
- P2 16:03Hedman: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: TBL Hedman, Bjorkstrand, Raddysh, Holmberg, James · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Power
- P2 16:03Samuelsson: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: TBL Hedman, Bjorkstrand, Raddysh, Holmberg, James · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Power
- P2 16:17Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Luukkonen4v4
- P2 17:14Shot by Raddysh, saved by Luukkonen4v4
- P2 17:23Shot by Byram, saved by Johansson4v4
- P2 17:28Shot by Power, saved by Johansson4v4
- P2 18:26Shot by Gourde, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 18:49Shot by Tuch, saved by Johansson
- P2 19:11Shot by Hedman, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 19:31Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 0:00Period end
- P3 0:00Period start
- P3 1:25Shot by Lilleberg, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 1:28Tuch: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: TBL Gourde, Girgensons, D'Astous, Holmberg, Lilleberg · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Kesselring, Krebs, Power
- P3 1:28D'Astous: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: TBL Gourde, Girgensons, D'Astous, Holmberg, Lilleberg · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Kesselring, Krebs, Power
- P3 1:28Kesselring: Cross checking (2 min)
On ice: TBL Gourde, Girgensons, D'Astous, Holmberg, Lilleberg · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Kesselring, Krebs, Power
- P3 2:02Guentzel: Abuse of officials (2 min)5v4
On ice: TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, Raddysh · BUF Malenstyn, McLeod, Samuelsson, Byram
- P3 2:02Guentzel: Abusive language (10 min)5v4
On ice: TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, Raddysh · BUF Malenstyn, McLeod, Samuelsson, Byram
- P3 2:21Shot by Byram, saved by Johansson4v4
- P3 3:43Goal by Tuch (Dahlin, Quinn)4v5+1 pts WP
On ice: TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Girgensons, Lilleberg · BUF Tuch, McLeod, Dahlin, Byram, Quinn
- P3 4:03Shot by Holmberg, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 5:27Goal by Hedman (Raddysh)0 pts WP
On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Raddysh, Hagel · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Kesselring, Krebs
- P3 5:48Shot by Girgensons, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 6:03Shot by Power, saved by Johansson
- P3 6:11Shot by Malenstyn, saved by Johansson
- P3 6:23Raddysh: Cross checking (2 min)5v6
On ice: TBL Hedman, Bjorkstrand, Raddysh, Cirelli, James · BUF Malenstyn, Thompson, Byram, Power, Kozak, Benson
- P3 9:52Shot by Kucherov, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 12:48Cirelli: Interference (2 min)5v6
On ice: TBL Kucherov, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser, Lilleberg · BUF Tuch, Thompson, McLeod, Dahlin, Krebs, Byram
- P3 14:18Shot by Hagel, saved by Luukkonen4v5
- P3 15:11Shot by Lilleberg, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 15:15Shot by Hagel, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 16:57Shot by Hagel, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 17:12Kesselring: Cross checking (2 min)
On ice: TBL McDonagh, Bjorkstrand, Cernak, Hagel, James · BUF Norris, Kesselring, Krebs, Doan, Power
- P3 17:14Shot by Byram, saved by Johansson5v4
- P3 17:41Shot by Hagel, saved by Luukkonen5v4
- P3 18:01Shot by Raddysh, saved by Luukkonen5v4
- P3 18:11Shot by Kucherov, saved by Luukkonen5v4
- P3 0:00D'Astous: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: TBL Gourde, Girgensons, D'Astous, Holmberg, Lilleberg · BUF Dahlin, Krebs, Quinn, Kozak, Metsa
- P3 0:00Period end4v5
- P3 0:00Final