Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
30%
56%
TBL winsBUF wins
Buffalo Sabres
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Rasmus DahlinD · #26 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 24:32 | 0.32 | 61.8% | +21.2 |
 Mattias SamuelssonD · #23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 24:08 | 0.08 | 40.9% | 0.0 |
 Bowen ByramD · #4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 22:45 | 0.24 | 46.6% | +9.5 |
 Ryan McLeodC · #71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:21 | 0.29 | 55.3% | 0.0 |
 Owen PowerD · #25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 19:59 | 0.22 | 44.5% | +15.0 |
 Alex TuchRW · #89 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 5 | 18:15 | 0.56 | 46.4% | +0.6 |
 Josh DoanRW · #91 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:08 | 0.12 | 50.0% | +12.6 |
 Tage ThompsonC · #72 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 6 | 16:00 | 0.56 | 64.1% | +5.6 |
 Josh NorrisC · #9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 15:03 | 0.23 | 44.5% | +22.1 |
 Noah OstlundC · #86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:46 | 0.22 | 25.4% | 0.0 |
 Jack QuinnRW · #22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:21 | 0.23 | 66.2% | +0.6 |
 Zach BensonLW · #6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0.00 | 23.8% | +9.5 |
 Zach MetsaD · #73 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 13:08 | 0.32 | 51.4% | +15.1 |
 Tyson KozakC · #48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:04 | 0.00 | 23.2% | 0.0 |
 Beck MalenstynLW · #29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:26 | 0.14 | 22.9% | 0.0 |
 Jason ZuckerLW · #17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 12:05 | 0.30 | 66.2% | 0.0 |
 Peyton KrebsC · #19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 0 | 10:59 | 0.25 | 55.1% | +5.6 |
 Michael KesselringD · #8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 8:40 | 0.00 | 21.1% | 0.0 |
 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen#1 | W | 38 | 36 | 2 | .947 | 3.25 | +1.2 | 59:41 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Darren RaddyshD · #43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 21:18 | 0.15 | 51.1% | +0.5 |
 Brandon HagelLW · #38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 8 | 21:05 | 0.69 | 55.2% | 0.0 |
 Nikita KucherovRW · #86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 4 | 20:11 | 0.24 | 51.1% | 0.0 |
 Brayden PointC · #21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 0.00 | 63.4% | 0.0 |
 Victor HedmanD · #77 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:53 | 0.15 | 61.6% | +1.6 |
 Emil LillebergD · #78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 16:45 | 0.06 | 58.8% | 0.0 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandRW · #22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 4 | 16:24 | 0.45 | 70.7% | +1.1 |
 Ryan McDonaghD · #27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 0 | 16:16 | 0.00 | 32.0% | 0.0 |
 Yanni GourdeC · #37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 15:59 | 0.00 | 42.7% | 0.0 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousD · #51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 15:50 | 0.00 | 74.3% | 0.0 |
 J.J. MoserD · #90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 15:46 | 0.10 | 38.9% | 0.0 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsC · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 15:03 | 0.17 | 39.1% | 0.0 |
 Erik CernakD · #81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0.06 | 42.1% | 0.0 |
 Anthony CirelliC · #71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 14:01 | 0.30 | 35.4% | 0.0 |
 Pontus HolmbergRW · #29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:52 | 0.11 | 52.3% | 0.0 |
 Dominic JamesC · #17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13:06 | 0.17 | 72.8% | +1.1 |
 Jake GuentzelC · #59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 13:02 | 0.32 | 38.1% | 0.0 |
 Gage GoncalvesC · #93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 8:17 | 0.29 | 75.4% | 0.0 |
 Jonas Johansson#31 | – | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 2.30 | +1.3 | 38:06 |
 Andrei Vasilevskiy#88 | L | 14 | 9 | 5 | .643 | 1.77 | −3.2 | 21:54 |