Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 217 | 06 | 229 |
| CAR | 211 | 114 | 211 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:05CARTaylor HallUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 19:52CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 2:52CAREric RobinsonGWGAssists: William Carrier, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P2 18:26DETSimon EdvinssonAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 19:13DETPatrick KaneAssists: Moritz Seider, J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 2:18CARShayne GostisbehereAssists: Jackson Blake, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 5:30CARJackson BlakeAssists: Taylor Hall, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:19DETAlbert Johansson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:07CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:07DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:42CARSean Walker: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:07DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:09DETSimon Edvinsson: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestShine – Kasper – Finnie2:33
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat7:58
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Appleton3:31
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–2
- van Riemsdyk – Shine – Rasmussen4:40
xG 0.44–0.60 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Seider – Edvinsson18:06
xG 0.85–0.88 (49%)attempts 15–21goals 1–2
- Chiarot – Bernard-Docker17:30
xG 0.68–1.14 (37%)attempts 15–26goals 0–0
- Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka10:39
xG 0.22–0.75 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake11:27
xG 0.92–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–1goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson7:30
xG 0.71–0.63 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers11:26
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:45
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Nikishin12:52
xG 1.10–0.19 (85%)attempts 17–6goals 3–0
- Walker – Miller17:24
xG 0.95–0.46 (68%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Slavin – Chatfield16:57
xG 0.86–1.08 (44%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).