Mon, Mar 2, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 114 | 04 | 15 | 02 | 2 | 325 |
| TOR | 17 | 011 | 19 | 04 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:22TORDakota JoshuaAssists: Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 18:38PHIChristian DvorakPPAssists: Noah Cates, Denver Barkey · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 14:42PHINoah CatesAssists: Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 17:30TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: John Tavares, Matthew Knies · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR William Nylander scored
- 2. PHI Matvei Michkov scored
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 4. PHI Trevor Zegras scored
- 5. TOR Max Domi stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:36TOREaston Cowan: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:01TORNicolas Roy: Interference2 min
- P1 13:00PHIMatvei Michkov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:47TORBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:40PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
- P3 15:37PHIDenver Barkey: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Michkov10:34
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Grundstrom4:45
xG 0.08–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Tippett – Zegras12:32
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Couturier – Grebenkin – Barkey5:35
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Drysdale2:16
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim18:41
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Seeler – Andrae5:24
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Lorentz – Cowan5:56
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Joshua – Roy – Maccelli8:32
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Tavares – Domi – Knies10:02
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Nylander – Matthews – McMann14:57
xG 0.44–0.62 (41%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Myers10:12
xG 0.29–0.02 (95%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly4:43
xG 0.06–0.10 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carlo12:02
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).