Tue, Mar 3, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 4, Edmonton Oilers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 28 | 210 | 03 | 00 | 421 |
| EDM | 210 | 015 | 29 | 13 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34OTTDylan CozensAssists: Nick Cousins, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 5:03EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Matt Savoie · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 6:34OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 16:48EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 4:30OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 5:11OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 1:52EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 18:35EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4
- OT 1:50EDMEvan BouchardPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:39EDMEvan Bouchard: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:00EDMVasily Podkolzin: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:00OTTRidly Greig: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:00EDMVasily Podkolzin: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:36EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 12:17OTTTyler Kleven: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:38OTTShane Pinto: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- OT 0:55OTTBrady Tkachuk: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig6:43
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Halliday4:44
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto10:08
xG 0.03–0.26 (10%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle8:40
xG 0.51–0.82 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Jensen – Chabot18:02
xG 0.60–0.71 (46%)attempts 11–20goals 3–1
- Sanderson – Zub17:48
xG 0.56–0.96 (37%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Spence – Kleven11:29
xG 0.33–0.77 (30%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Roslovic – Savoie8:21
xG 0.96–0.19 (83%)attempts 19–4goals 2–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:07
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:22
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Kapanen – Frederic2:37
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Stastney4:07
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Nurse3:20
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nurse – Emberson10:51
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).