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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 3, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton

Ottawa Senators 4, Edmonton Oilers 5 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.

EDM winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:26Shot by Roslovic, saved by Ullmark
  3. P1 2:40Shot by Giroux, saved by Ingram
  4. P1 2:42Shot by Batherson, saved by Ingram
  5. P1 3:11Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Ingram
  6. P1 3:34Goal by Cozens (Cousins, Chabot)+15 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Draisaitl, Walman, Roslovic, Bouchard, Savoie · OTT Jensen, Cousins, Chabot, Cozens, Greig

  7. P1 4:48Shot by Savoie, saved by Ullmark
  8. P1 4:59Shot by Ekholm, saved by Ullmark
  9. P1 5:03Goal by Draisaitl (Ekholm, Savoie)+15 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Ekholm, Draisaitl, Roslovic, Stastney, Savoie · OTT Giroux, Batherson, Spence, Kleven, Stützle

  10. P1 5:39Bouchard: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Walman, Frederic, Bouchard, Podkolzin, Samanski · OTT Eller, Jensen, Chabot, Zetterlund, Halliday

  11. P1 6:34Goal by Batherson (Tkachuk, Stützle)4v5+14 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, McDavid, Emberson · OTT Batherson, Tkachuk, Cozens, Sanderson, Stützle

  12. P1 7:07Shot by Pinto, saved by Ingram
  13. P1 8:00Podkolzin: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Ekholm, Kapanen, Stastney, Podkolzin, Samanski · OTT Batherson, Spence, Greig, Kleven, Stützle

  14. P1 8:00Greig: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: EDM Ekholm, Kapanen, Stastney, Podkolzin, Samanski · OTT Batherson, Spence, Greig, Kleven, Stützle

  15. P1 8:00Podkolzin: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: EDM Ekholm, Kapanen, Stastney, Podkolzin, Samanski · OTT Batherson, Spence, Greig, Kleven, Stützle

  16. P1 8:13Shot by Ekholm, saved by Ullmark4v5
  17. P1 9:07Shot by McDavid, saved by Ullmark4v5
  18. P1 10:36Nurse: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Nurse, Draisaitl, Kapanen, Roslovic, Emberson · OTT Cousins, Amadio, Pinto, Sanderson, Zub

  19. P1 10:57Shot by Sanderson, saved by Ingram4v5
  20. P1 12:31Shot by Chabot, saved by Ingram4v5
  21. P1 16:02Shot by Hyman, saved by Ullmark
  22. P1 16:48Goal by Draisaitl, unassisted+16 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Nurse, Draisaitl, Roslovic, Emberson, Savoie · OTT Giroux, Jensen, Chabot, Batherson, Stützle

  23. P1 19:06Shot by Nugent-Hopkins, saved by Ullmark
  24. P1 19:36Shot by Draisaitl, saved by Ullmark
  25. P1 0:00Period end
  26. P2 0:00Period start
  27. P2 0:57Shot by Cozens, saved by Ingram
  28. P2 1:23Shot by Sanderson, saved by Ingram
  29. P2 2:45Shot by Halliday, saved by Ingram
  30. P2 2:52Shot by Eller, saved by Ingram
  31. P2 4:30Goal by Batherson (Stützle)+17 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Ekholm, Hyman, McDavid, Bouchard, Podkolzin · OTT Giroux, Jensen, Chabot, Batherson, Stützle

  32. P2 4:43Shot by Kapanen, saved by Ullmark
  33. P2 5:03Shot by Eller, saved by Ingram
  34. P2 5:11Goal by Amadio (Jensen)+15 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Henrique, Kapanen, Walman, Frederic, Stastney · OTT Eller, Jensen, Amadio, Chabot, Halliday

  35. P2 6:05Shot by Bouchard, saved by Ullmark
  36. P2 6:35Shot by Hyman, saved by Ullmark
  37. P2 9:01Shot by Hyman, saved by Ullmark
  38. P2 9:02Shot by Nugent-Hopkins, saved by Ullmark
  39. P2 10:44Shot by Chabot, saved by Ingram
  40. P2 11:22Shot by Zub, saved by Ingram
  41. P2 11:42Shot by McDavid, saved by Ullmark
  42. P2 11:51Shot by Cozens, saved by Ingram
  43. P2 12:15Shot by Walman, saved by Ullmark6v5
  44. P2 12:17Kleven: Hooking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: EDM Henrique, Draisaitl, Kapanen, Walman, Frederic, Stastney · OTT Eller, Zetterlund, Spence, Kleven, Halliday

  45. P2 14:01Shot by Podkolzin, saved by Ullmark5v4
  46. P2 15:04Shot by Emberson, saved by Ullmark
  47. P2 15:15Shot by Kapanen, saved by Ullmark
  48. P2 16:07Shot by McDavid, saved by Ullmark
  49. P2 16:25Shot by Bouchard, saved by Ullmark
  50. P2 17:12Shot by Podkolzin, saved by Ullmark
  51. P2 17:20Shot by Nugent-Hopkins, saved by Ullmark
  52. P2 19:40Shot by Samanski, saved by Ullmark
  53. P2 0:00Period end
  54. P3 0:00Period start
  55. P3 0:38Pinto: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Nurse, Draisaitl, Roslovic, Bouchard, Savoie · OTT Cousins, Amadio, Pinto, Sanderson, Zub

  56. P3 1:39Shot by McDavid, saved by Ullmark5v4
  57. P3 1:52Goal by Nugent-Hopkins (Draisaitl, McDavid)5v4+16 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard · OTT Amadio, Chabot, Greig, Kleven

  58. P3 1:58Shot by Greig, saved by Ingram
  59. P3 2:57Shot by Bouchard, saved by Ullmark
  60. P3 4:43Shot by Emberson, saved by Ullmark
  61. P3 5:15Shot by Nurse, saved by Ullmark
  62. P3 14:05Shot by Nugent-Hopkins, saved by Ullmark
  63. P3 15:28Shot by Savoie, saved by Ullmark
  64. P3 15:35Shot by Roslovic, saved by Ullmark
  65. P3 18:35Goal by Hyman (Draisaitl, Bouchard)6v5+38 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Ekholm, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard · OTT Tkachuk, Pinto, Greig, Sanderson, Zub

  66. P3 18:55Shot by Jensen, saved by Ingram
  67. P3 19:11Shot by Sanderson, saved by Ingram
  68. P3 0:00Period end
  69. OT 0:00Period start
  70. OT 0:55Tkachuk: Holding (2 min)3v3

    On ice: EDM Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard · OTT Chabot, Tkachuk, Stützle

  71. OT 1:32Shot by Hyman, saved by Ullmark4v3
  72. OT 1:41Shot by Draisaitl, saved by Ullmark4v3
  73. OT 1:50Goal by Bouchard (McDavid, Draisaitl)4v3+51 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Hyman, Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard · OTT Greig, Sanderson, Zub

  74. OT 1:50Period end4v3
  75. OT 1:50Final4v3