Tue, Mar 3, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 012 | 16 | 07 | 125 |
| MIN | 15 | 27 | 210 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46MINBrock FaberAssists: Marcus Johansson, Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 4:59MINMats ZuccarelloPPGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 15:07TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 17:10MINYakov TreninAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 6:53MINQuinn HughesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 16:41MINKirill KaprizovENAssists: Brock Faber, Matt Boldy · Backhand, 0.48 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:10TBLBrandon Hagel: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:31TBLScott Sabourin: Misconduct10 min
- P1 15:05MINJonas Brodin: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:10TBLOliver Bjorkstrand: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 4:11MINKirill Kaprizov: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:24TBLAnthony Cirelli: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:05TBLBrayden Point: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:33MINVinnie Hinostroza: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:35TBLDarren Raddysh: Interference2 min
- P3 19:01MINZach Bogosian: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point9:07
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Bjorkstrand – Cirelli – Hagel2:31
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg8:14
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel3:19
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser12:10
xG 0.76–0.58 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Raddysh – D'Astous3:06
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hedman – Lilleberg3:07
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy2:18
xG 0.14–0.14 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy6:04
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:40
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Fabbri – Sturm4:21
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Faber14:37
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 20–14goals 2–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin10:15
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Middleton11:55
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).