Tue, Mar 3, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
52%
9%
9%
30%
MIN winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
MIN forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Kucherov–Guentzel–Point | Gourde–Girgensons–Holmberg | Sabourin–Bjorkstrand–Geekie | Kucherov–Cirelli–Hagel | Cirelli–Hagel–Geekie | Bjorkstrand–Cirelli–Hagel | Guentzel–Cirelli–Hagel | Guentzel–Bjorkstrand–Point | Kucherov–Point–Hagel | Raddysh–Moser | McDonagh–Cernak | Hedman–D'Astous | D'Astous–Lilleberg | Hedman–Lilleberg | Raddysh–D'Astous | Hedman–Raddysh | McDonagh–Lilleberg | Moser–Lilleberg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zuccarello–Hartman–Kaprizov | 1:320.05–0.04 | 3:540.05–0.01 | 1:070.04–0.11 | 0:330.00–0.04 | 0:510.04–0.00 | 3:270.06–0.05 | 3:320.00–0.04 | 1:120.04–0.04 | 0:550.04–0.07 | 0:310.04–0.00 | ||||||||
| Tarasenko–Trenin–Yurov | 1:180.08–0.19 | 1:090.02–0.00 | 0:410.00–0.02 | 0:490.00–0.07 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | 1:310.11–0.00 | 1:170.00–0.14 | 1:010.00–0.02 | 0:330.00–0.13 | 0:360.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Johansson–Eriksson Ek–Boldy | 1:100.00–0.08 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:450.06–0.00 | 0:470.07–0.00 | 0:580.00–0.00 | 1:060.07–0.13 | 2:440.00–0.08 | 1:150.07–0.00 | 0:570.06–0.00 | |||||||||
| Hinostroza–Fabbri–Sturm | 1:200.00–0.04 | 1:560.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 1:120.00–0.04 | 0:420.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.01 | 0:370.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Eriksson Ek–Kaprizov–Boldy | 1:340.14–0.00 | 0:350.14–0.14 | 1:370.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Zuccarello–Tarasenko–Hartman | 1:010.22–0.01 | 0:370.22–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Tarasenko–Kaprizov–Yurov | 1:140.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| Hartman–Kaprizov–Boldy | 0:500.05–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Hughes–Faber | 4:080.24–0.12 | 2:440.05–0.00 | 1:380.09–0.04 | 1:240.18–0.07 | 1:490.04–0.00 | 4:270.36–0.23 | 3:030.09–0.00 | 2:530.07–0.07 | 1:440.04–0.04 | 0:440.04–0.00 | 0:310.04–0.00 | |||||||
| Bogosian–Middleton | 1:440.00–0.23 | 1:540.02–0.00 | 3:520.22–0.10 | 0:580.00–0.04 | 0:440.00–0.15 | 1:580.22–0.29 | 2:370.02–0.04 | 2:260.00–0.06 | 1:130.00–0.03 | 1:010.00–0.09 | 0:440.00–0.01 | 0:420.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | |||||
| Spurgeon–Brodin | 1:000.00–0.21 | 2:400.00–0.04 | 0:500.12–0.00 | 0:420.11–0.00 | 1:180.00–0.13 | 0:420.00–0.00 | 4:040.00–0.21 | 1:480.00–0.04 | 1:260.11–0.00 | 1:090.12–0.13 | ||||||||
| Brodin–Faber | 1:100.08–0.13 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.13 | |||||||||||||||
| Brodin–Hughes | 0:300.00–0.01 | 0:440.00–0.01 | ||||||||||||||||
| Spurgeon–Hughes | 0:380.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
MINTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Quinn HughesMIN | 23 | 26:01 | 1:08 | 3:35 | 3 | 1 |
 Brock FaberMIN | 27 | 24:12 | 0:54 | 2:02 | 2 | 3 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 24 | 23:07 | 0:58 | 2:11 | 4 | 3 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 24 | 22:56 | 0:57 | 2:33 | 7 | 0 |
 Kirill KaprizovMIN | 20 | 22:11 | 1:07 | 2:02 | 5 | 1 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 22 | 22:11 | 1:01 | 2:35 | 8 | 0 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 22 | 20:50 | 0:57 | 2:24 | 3 | 2 |
 Mats ZuccarelloMIN | 18 | 20:24 | 1:08 | 2:03 | 5 | 1 |
 Matt BoldyMIN | 20 | 19:57 | 1:00 | 2:57 | 6 | 2 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 23 | 19:50 | 0:52 | 2:35 | 7 | 3 |
 Jake MiddletonMIN | 20 | 18:26 | 0:55 | 1:48 | 3 | 2 |
 Joel Eriksson EkMIN | 20 | 18:20 | 0:55 | 2:28 | 6 | 2 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 24 | 16:51 | 0:42 | 2:07 | 3 | 2 |
 Ryan HartmanMIN | 20 | 16:29 | 0:49 | 1:53 | 2 | 2 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 26 | 16:19 | 0:38 | 1:22 | 2 | 8 |
 J.J. MoserTBL | 21 | 16:14 | 0:46 | 1:55 | 3 | 2 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 20 | 16:12 | 0:49 | 2:25 | 3 | 1 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandTBL | 19 | 15:56 | 0:50 | 1:45 | 1 | 0 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousTBL | 20 | 15:43 | 0:47 | 1:38 | 4 | 3 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 20 | 15:37 | 0:47 | 1:26 | 0 | 6 |
 Jared SpurgeonMIN | 22 | 15:27 | 0:42 | 1:25 | 3 | 2 |
 Jonas BrodinMIN | 24 | 15:24 | 0:39 | 1:04 | 2 | 1 |
 Yakov TreninMIN | 17 | 15:18 | 0:54 | 1:30 | 2 | 1 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 19 | 14:49 | 0:47 | 1:28 | 0 | 7 |
 Zach BogosianMIN | 19 | 14:25 | 0:46 | 1:17 | 3 | 0 |
 Vladimir TarasenkoMIN | 18 | 14:21 | 0:48 | 1:29 | 4 | 1 |
 Danila YurovMIN | 16 | 13:54 | 0:52 | 1:28 | 3 | 1 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsTBL | 22 | 13:07 | 0:36 | 1:35 | 1 | 7 |
 Pontus HolmbergTBL | 19 | 12:59 | 0:41 | 1:41 | 2 | 5 |
 Emil LillebergTBL | 15 | 11:08 | 0:45 | 1:07 | 2 | 0 |
 Marcus JohanssonMIN | 17 | 10:45 | 0:38 | 1:05 | 2 | 1 |
 Conor GeekieTBL | 16 | 10:40 | 0:40 | 1:04 | 3 | 1 |
 Nico SturmMIN | 14 | 10:06 | 0:43 | 0:59 | 0 | 1 |
 Robby FabbriMIN | 12 | 9:16 | 0:46 | 1:12 | 0 | 0 |
 Vinnie HinostrozaMIN | 11 | 8:05 | 0:44 | 1:06 | 0 | 0 |
 Scott SabourinTBL | 11 | 7:29 | 0:41 | 1:00 | 1 | 0 |