Thu, Mar 5, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 311 | 18 | 526 |
| PIT | 16 | 012 | 010 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:00BUFRyan McLeodSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 14:48PITBryan RustSHAssists: Ben Kindel · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 4:10BUFJosh NorrisPPGWGAssists: Josh Doan, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 6:18BUFAlex TuchSHAssists: Owen Power, Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 10:30BUFOwen PowerAssists: Josh Norris, Noah Ostlund · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 16:53BUFMattias SamuelssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:22BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:16PITErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P1 10:24BUFJack Quinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:04PITNoel Acciari: Holding2 min
- P2 0:38BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:38PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:38PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing5 min · PPG
- P2 0:38PITEvgeni Malkin: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 4:10PITEgor Chinakhov: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 5:25BUFRyan McLeod: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:44BUFBeck Malenstyn: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:04PITBen Kindel: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:54BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Novak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Doan – Ostlund8:28
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn5:29
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Dunne – Benson5:54
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs5:34
xG 0.11–0.49 (18%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Metsa3:34
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power3:59
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Byram – Power4:51
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Novak – Chinakhov3:12
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Mantha – Novak – Brazeau2:39
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Rust – Rakell – Chinakhov2:36
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte7:13
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Shea10:20
xG 0.82–0.23 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Girard9:54
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Girard2:03
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).