Thu, Mar 5, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
25%
8%
60%
PIT winsBUF wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
PIT forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against BUF's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Norris–Doan–Ostlund | Malenstyn–Dunne–Benson | Tuch–Thompson–Krebs | Zucker–McLeod–Quinn | Tuch–McLeod–Krebs | Thompson–Doan–Ostlund | Thompson–Krebs–Quinn | Byram–Metsa | Byram–Power | Dahlin–Kesselring | Samuelsson–Kesselring | Dahlin–Power | Samuelsson–Metsa | Samuelsson–Dahlin | Samuelsson–Power | Kesselring–Byram | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acciari–Dewar–Lizotte | 2:540.14–0.31 | 1:150.00–0.01 | 0:330.01–0.06 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 0:450.21–0.00 | 2:480.21–0.27 | 1:480.15–0.14 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.02 | |||||||
| Malkin–Novak–Chinakhov | 1:230.00–0.03 | 0:400.21–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.10 | 0:360.00–0.10 | 1:410.00–0.03 | 0:320.13–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Mantha–Novak–Brazeau | 0:410.00–0.07 | 1:080.25–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | 1:240.25–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.07 | |||||||||||
| Rust–Rakell–Chinakhov | 0:560.00–0.00 | 0:350.18–0.11 | 1:150.04–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Mantha–Brazeau–Kindel | 0:590.02–0.01 | 1:080.02–0.15 | 0:460.03–0.01 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.15 | |||||||||||
| Novak–Chinakhov–Hayes | 1:250.00–0.18 | 1:300.00–0.18 | ||||||||||||||
| Novak–Brazeau–Hayes | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:310.02–0.00 | 1:170.02–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Rust–Rakell–Hayes | 0:430.00–0.00 | 1:030.00–0.00 | 0:410.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Rust–Rakell–Kindel | 1:220.23–0.11 | 0:320.00–0.11 | ||||||||||||||
| Chinakhov–Hayes–Kindel | 0:400.00–0.05 | 0:410.00–0.05 | ||||||||||||||
| Brazeau–Hayes–Kindel | 0:440.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Mantha–Brazeau–Lizotte | 0:370.00–0.12 | 1:000.00–0.12 | ||||||||||||||
| Clifton–Shea | 3:070.00–0.03 | 1:330.00–0.12 | 2:110.46–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.02 | 0:380.00–0.06 | 2:150.12–0.13 | 1:030.25–0.00 | 1:370.05–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 2:020.00–0.03 | 0:310.00–0.01 | |||||
| Letang–Girard | 2:290.14–0.03 | 2:210.04–0.06 | 1:060.00–0.02 | 1:390.26–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:310.02–0.00 | 1:170.23–0.00 | 0:550.14–0.03 | 1:040.02–0.00 | 2:160.03–0.03 | 2:050.04–0.05 | 1:190.00–0.00 | ||||
| Karlsson–Wotherspoon | 0:580.00–0.18 | 1:410.03–0.09 | 2:410.00–0.36 | 2:010.01–0.09 | 1:200.00–0.11 | 0:500.02–0.10 | 1:560.06–0.18 | 0:300.00–0.15 | ||||||||
| Karlsson–Girard | 0:430.00–0.07 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.07 | |||||||||||||
| Wotherspoon–Girard | 1:480.00–0.27 | 1:100.00–0.26 | ||||||||||||||
| Letang–Wotherspoon | 0:300.02–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Letang–Shea |
Every shift, one row per player.
PITBUFFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Erik KarlssonPIT | 17 | 23:05 | 1:21 | 4:48 | 4 | 1 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 22 | 22:32 | 1:01 | 1:36 | 4 | 4 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 25 | 21:29 | 0:52 | 2:36 | 3 | 3 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 24 | 21:19 | 0:53 | 1:45 | 0 | 6 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 21 | 20:45 | 0:59 | 1:36 | 2 | 4 |
 Bryan RustPIT | 20 | 19:53 | 1:00 | 1:58 | 7 | 1 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 17 | 18:43 | 1:06 | 2:38 | 4 | 3 |
 Rickard RakellPIT | 18 | 18:34 | 1:02 | 2:27 | 6 | 0 |
 Ryan SheaPIT | 19 | 18:30 | 0:58 | 2:36 | 1 | 4 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 19 | 18:28 | 0:58 | 2:07 | 6 | 2 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 25 | 18:23 | 0:44 | 1:16 | 2 | 5 |
 Samuel GirardPIT | 18 | 18:02 | 1:00 | 1:52 | 1 | 1 |
 Connor CliftonPIT | 17 | 17:55 | 1:03 | 2:31 | 1 | 4 |
 Josh NorrisBUF | 18 | 17:41 | 0:59 | 2:03 | 6 | 2 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 25 | 17:37 | 0:42 | 1:32 | 3 | 6 |
 Egor ChinakhovPIT | 20 | 17:27 | 0:52 | 1:57 | 6 | 0 |
 Kris LetangPIT | 18 | 17:09 | 0:57 | 1:38 | 1 | 1 |
 Blake LizottePIT | 17 | 16:44 | 0:59 | 1:44 | 3 | 2 |
 Noah OstlundBUF | 19 | 16:42 | 0:53 | 1:23 | 4 | 2 |
 Anthony ManthaPIT | 13 | 15:58 | 1:14 | 3:19 | 2 | 1 |
 Noel AcciariPIT | 16 | 15:27 | 0:58 | 1:46 | 2 | 5 |
 Tommy NovakPIT | 18 | 15:03 | 0:50 | 1:23 | 1 | 1 |
 Parker WotherspoonPIT | 16 | 14:54 | 0:56 | 1:33 | 0 | 1 |
 Ben KindelPIT | 19 | 14:52 | 0:47 | 1:29 | 3 | 2 |
 Connor DewarPIT | 13 | 14:43 | 1:08 | 1:51 | 0 | 5 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 20 | 14:25 | 0:43 | 1:20 | 0 | 2 |
 Justin BrazeauPIT | 20 | 14:13 | 0:43 | 1:21 | 0 | 1 |
 Jason ZuckerBUF | 13 | 14:11 | 1:05 | 2:34 | 4 | 2 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 18 | 13:22 | 0:45 | 1:46 | 0 | 2 |
 Michael KesselringBUF | 18 | 12:58 | 0:43 | 1:30 | 2 | 1 |
 Avery HayesPIT | 16 | 12:43 | 0:48 | 1:23 | 2 | 0 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 17 | 11:49 | 0:42 | 1:15 | 2 | 2 |
 Zach MetsaBUF | 12 | 11:00 | 0:55 | 1:31 | 0 | 3 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 16 | 10:35 | 0:40 | 1:35 | 2 | 3 |
 Josh DunneBUF | 12 | 8:37 | 0:43 | 0:58 | 0 | 1 |
 Evgeni MalkinPIT | 6 | 5:54 | 0:59 | 1:23 | 2 | 0 |