Thu, Mar 5, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 111 | 318 | 437 |
| CGY | 18 | 07 | 05 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:04CGYMartin PospisilAssists: Matvei Gridin, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 9:35OTTLars EllerAssists: Ridly Greig, Fabian Zetterlund · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 6:33OTTDylan CozensPPGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 17:59OTTTim StützleENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–1
- P3 19:46OTTShane PintoENAssists: Michael Amadio, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:34OTTClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:51CGYZach Whitecloud: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:31OTTMichael Amadio: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:46CGYBlake Coleman: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:52CGYAdam Klapka: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:58CGYZayne Parekh: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:23OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Batherson – Stützle9:52
xG 0.88–0.15 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto8:09
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig8:03
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven11:20
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Chabot – Spence2:25
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot13:36
xG 0.85–0.60 (59%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Lomberg – Pospisil – Klapka4:33
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Kadri – Lomberg – Klapka2:20
xG 0.05–0.15 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato11:24
xG 0.38–0.64 (37%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Zary7:18
xG 0.08–0.41 (17%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Whitecloud – Kuznetsov2:18
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hanley – Whitecloud2:03
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hanley – Pachal10:01
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).