Sat, Mar 7, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 12 | 28 | 05 | 01 | 1 | 416 |
| PIT | 18 | 27 | 04 | 04 | 0 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:00PITTommy NovakPPAssists: Justin Brazeau, Ville Koivunen · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 3:54PHIOwen TippettAssists: Trevor Zegras, Cam York · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 3:38PITRickard RakellAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 4:46PHIAlex BumpAssists: Nikita Grebenkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 5:45PITErik KarlssonAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 10:03PHIDenver BarkeyAssists: Matvei Michkov, Noah Cates · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PIT Anthony Mantha stopped
- 2. PHI Matvei Michkov stopped
- 3. PIT Rickard Rakell stopped
- 4. PHI Trevor Zegras scored
- 5. PIT Egor Chinakhov stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:31PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:12PHILuke Glendening: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:44PITJustin Brazeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:40PHIJamie Drysdale: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:40PHIJamie Drysdale: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:40PITAvery Hayes: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:02PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:54PHIChristian Dvorak: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:19PHICarl Grundstrom: High sticking2 min
- OT 2:51PHIDan Vladar: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Lizotte
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Bump – Grebenkin7:38
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Grundstrom – Tippett – Zegras7:54
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
- Cates – Barkey – Michkov11:12
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Couturier – Glendening – Hathaway6:24
xG 0.07–0.27 (21%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – Andrae3:48
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Juulsen – York2:09
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 1–2goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim15:56
xG 0.13–0.48 (21%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRust – Rakell – Chinakhov11:14
xG 0.64–0.01 (99%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte9:55
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel3:03
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Mantha – Novak – Brazeau6:25
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Shea11:07
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon13:21
xG 0.37–0.20 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Letang – Girard14:59
xG 0.70–0.68 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).