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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 7, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.

PIT winsPHI wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:35Shot by Dewar, saved by Vladar
  3. P1 1:31Ristolainen: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Rust, Rakell, Girard, Chinakhov · PHI Ristolainen, Sanheim, Grundstrom, Tippett, Zegras

  4. P1 3:00Goal by Novak (Brazeau, Koivunen)5v4+12 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Letang, Novak, Brazeau, Koivunen, Kindel · PHI Glendening, Hathaway, Juulsen, Andrae

  5. P1 3:54Goal by Tippett (Zegras, York)+13 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Letang, Girard, Koivunen, Hayes, Kindel · PHI Grundstrom, Tippett, Zegras, York, Drysdale

  6. P1 4:12Shot by Chinakhov, saved by Vladar
  7. P1 4:25Shot by Rust, saved by Vladar
  8. P1 5:52Shot by Acciari, saved by Vladar
  9. P1 9:12Glendening: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Karlsson, Mantha, Novak, Girard, Brazeau · PHI Couturier, Glendening, Ristolainen, Hathaway, Sanheim

  10. P1 11:54Shot by Zegras, saved by Skinner
  11. P1 13:44Brazeau: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Karlsson, Mantha, Novak, Girard, Brazeau · PHI Couturier, Glendening, Hathaway, York, Drysdale

  12. P1 14:23Shot by Acciari, saved by Vladar4v5
  13. P1 16:20Shot by Chinakhov, saved by Vladar
  14. P1 18:26Shot by Kindel, saved by Vladar
  15. P1 18:40Drysdale: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Girard, Koivunen, Hayes, Kindel · PHI Cates, York, Drysdale, Grebenkin, Barkey

  16. P1 18:40Drysdale: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Girard, Koivunen, Hayes, Kindel · PHI Cates, York, Drysdale, Grebenkin, Barkey

  17. P1 18:40Hayes: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Girard, Koivunen, Hayes, Kindel · PHI Cates, York, Drysdale, Grebenkin, Barkey

  18. P1 0:00Period end5v4
  19. P2 0:00Period start
  20. P2 0:40Shot by Couturier, saved by Skinner5v4
  21. P2 2:09Shot by Sanheim, saved by Skinner
  22. P2 2:46Shot by Juulsen, saved by Skinner
  23. P2 3:38Goal by Rakell (Chinakhov, Rust)+22 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Letang, Rust, Rakell, Girard, Chinakhov · PHI Couturier, Glendening, Ristolainen, Hathaway, Sanheim

  24. P2 4:46Goal by Bump (Grebenkin)+22 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Rust, Clifton, Shea, Chinakhov, Kindel · PHI Dvorak, Juulsen, York, Bump, Grebenkin

  25. P2 5:45Goal by Karlsson (Chinakhov, Rakell)+23 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Karlsson, Rust, Rakell, Wotherspoon, Chinakhov · PHI Juulsen, Grundstrom, Tippett, Zegras, York

  26. P2 7:38Shot by Michkov, saved by Skinner
  27. P2 8:16Shot by Dvorak, saved by Skinner
  28. P2 8:36Shot by Dewar, saved by Vladar
  29. P2 9:29Shot by Letang, saved by Vladar
  30. P2 9:37Shot by Acciari, saved by Vladar
  31. P2 10:03Goal by Barkey (Michkov, Cates)+25 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Letang, Girard, Koivunen, Hayes, Kindel · PHI Cates, York, Drysdale, Barkey, Michkov

  32. P2 12:14Shot by Dewar, saved by Vladar
  33. P2 12:58Shot by Sanheim, saved by Skinner
  34. P2 13:02Letang: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Acciari, Girard, Lizotte, Koivunen · PHI Hathaway, Sanheim, Cates, Drysdale, Barkey

  35. P2 15:01Shot by Dewar, saved by Vladar4v5
  36. P2 0:00Period end
  37. P3 0:00Period start
  38. P3 3:54Dvorak: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Rust, Rakell, Girard, Chinakhov · PHI Dvorak, York, Drysdale, Bump, Grebenkin

  39. P3 7:45Shot by Rust, saved by Vladar
  40. P3 8:15Shot by Bump, saved by Skinner
  41. P3 8:47Shot by Brazeau, saved by Vladar
  42. P3 9:59Shot by Clifton, saved by Vladar
  43. P3 11:23Shot by Drysdale, saved by Skinner
  44. P3 11:36Shot by Barkey, saved by Skinner
  45. P3 12:15Shot by Grundstrom, saved by Skinner
  46. P3 13:19Grundstrom: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Karlsson, Rust, Rakell, Wotherspoon, Chinakhov · PHI Grundstrom, Tippett, Zegras, York, Drysdale

  47. P3 14:22Shot by Letang, saved by Vladar5v4
  48. P3 17:18Shot by Drysdale, saved by Skinner
  49. P3 0:00Period end
  50. OT 0:00Period start
  51. OT 1:05Shot by Zegras, saved by Skinner3v3
  52. OT 1:56Shot by Rakell, saved by Vladar3v3
  53. OT 2:44Shot by Chinakhov, saved by Vladar3v3
  54. OT 2:51Vladar: Interference (2 min)3v3

    On ice: PIT Karlsson, Chinakhov, Kindel · PHI Zegras, York, Michkov

  55. OT 3:39Shot by Rakell, saved by Vladar4v3
  56. OT 3:40Shot by Rakell, saved by Vladar4v3
  57. OT 5:00Period end4v4
  58. SO Period start
  59. SO Shot by Mantha, saved by Vladarother
  60. SO Shot by Michkov, saved by Skinnerother
  61. SO Shot by Rakell, saved by Vladarother
  62. SO Goal by Zegras, unassistedother
  63. SO Shot by Chinakhov, saved by Vladarother
  64. SO Period endother
  65. SO Finalother