Sat, Mar 7, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 412 | 07 | 114 | 533 |
| TOR | 111 | 08 | 110 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:50TORMatias MaccelliAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 5:36TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 12:30TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 13:48TBLCorey PerryGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P1 15:06TBLOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 15:41TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.82 xG5–1
- P3 19:29TORNick RobertsonUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:41TBLConor Geekie: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:14TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 12:14TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:31TORBrandon Carlo: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:49TBLDarren Raddysh: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:34TORTroy Stecher: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:33TBLScott Sabourin: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:22TORNick Robertson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:16TORSimon Benoit: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Cirelli – Hagel2:04
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point8:54
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Perry – Sabourin – Geekie8:18
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Cirelli – Hagel5:34
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak10:32
xG 0.72–0.11 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Hedman – Raddysh2:01
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cernak – Moser4:34
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Joshua – Robertson9:16
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Nylander – Matthews – Maccelli9:51
xG 0.57–0.54 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Tavares – Knies – Cowan10:38
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Lorentz – Quillan4:27
xG 0.04–0.57 (7%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Rielly7:29
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- McCabe – Carlo8:59
xG 0.69–0.66 (51%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Stecher – Benoit12:04
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).