Sat, Mar 7, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
17%
69%
TOR winsTBL wins
Tampa Bay Lightning
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Victor HedmanD · #77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:54 | 0.02 | 79.7% | 0.0 |
 Darren RaddyshD · #43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 20:45 | 0.46 | 63.0% | 0.0 |
 Erik CernakD · #81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 19:45 | 0.02 | 73.0% | 0.0 |
 Brandon HagelLW · #38 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 18:50 | 0.99 | 75.6% | +14.1 |
 J.J. MoserD · #90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18:44 | 0.26 | 48.5% | 0.0 |
 Nikita KucherovRW · #86 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 1 | 18:36 | 0.18 | 65.6% | +38.0 |
 Ryan McDonaghD · #27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:25 | 0.02 | 34.4% | +13.4 |
 Jake GuentzelC · #59 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 17:06 | 0.33 | 53.6% | +24.3 |
 Brayden PointC · #21 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 16:52 | 0.49 | 47.8% | +29.1 |
 Yanni GourdeC · #37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 16:33 | 0.00 | 46.1% | 0.0 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousD · #51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0.00 | 28.8% | 0.0 |
 Anthony CirelliC · #71 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 15:43 | 0.39 | 80.7% | +14.1 |
 Corey PerryRW · #10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:58 | 0.46 | 65.0% | +13.9 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandRW · #22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 2 | 14:56 | 0.14 | 48.0% | +8.6 |
 Pontus HolmbergRW · #29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 14:01 | 0.20 | 44.7% | 0.0 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsC · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 13:18 | 0.03 | 25.5% | 0.0 |
 Scott SabourinRW · #46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:07 | 0.08 | 63.8% | 0.0 |
 Conor GeekieC · #14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0.02 | 63.8% | 0.0 |
 Andrei Vasilevskiy#88 | W | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 2.40 | +0.4 | 59:19 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Jake McCabeD · #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 22:11 | 0.00 | 45.4% | 0.0 |
 Morgan RiellyD · #44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 20:39 | 0.03 | 36.8% | 0.0 |
 Matthew KniesLW · #23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 2 | 19:58 | 0.22 | 36.0% | 0.0 |
 Brandon CarloD · #25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 19:56 | 0.00 | 40.0% | 0.0 |
 Auston MatthewsC · #34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 6 | 19:17 | 0.62 | 49.6% | 0.0 |
 John TavaresC · #91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 19:13 | 0.12 | 41.5% | 0.0 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · #95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 18:49 | 0.03 | 47.3% | 0.0 |
 William NylanderRW · #88 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −2 | 2 | 17:53 | 0.23 | 44.0% | +13.1 |
 Troy StecherD · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0.04 | 44.0% | 0.0 |
 Easton CowanRW · #53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 15:18 | 0.15 | 42.2% | 0.0 |
 Simon BenoitD · #2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0.00 | 43.5% | 0.0 |
 Nick RobertsonLW · #89 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 15:08 | 0.51 | 64.8% | 0.0 |
 Matias MaccelliLW · #63 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 14:07 | 0.15 | 51.1% | +13.1 |
 Dakota JoshuaC · #81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 0.00 | 60.8% | 0.0 |
 Max DomiC · #11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 13:39 | 0.04 | 54.2% | 0.0 |
 Calle JarnkrokC · #19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 11:55 | 0.04 | 7.1% | 0.0 |
 Steven LorentzC · #18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 11:50 | 0.13 | 10.7% | 0.0 |
 Jacob QuillanC · #26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 8:44 | 0.10 | 21.2% | 0.0 |
 Anthony Stolarz#41 | L | 32 | 28 | 4 | .875 | 3.26 | −0.7 | 59:22 |