Sat, Mar 7, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
17%
69%
TOR winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Kucherov–Guentzel–Point | Perry–Sabourin–Geekie | Gourde–Bjorkstrand–Holmberg | Girgensons–Cirelli–Hagel | Gourde–Girgensons–Holmberg | Perry–Cirelli–Hagel | Gourde–Girgensons–Bjorkstrand | Kucherov–Cirelli–Hagel | McDonagh–D'Astous | Hedman–Cernak | Raddysh–Moser | Cernak–Moser | Hedman–D'Astous | Hedman–Raddysh | McDonagh–Cernak | Raddysh–D'Astous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavares–Knies–Cowan | 1:570.12–0.18 | 4:270.18–0.10 | 1:530.00–0.02 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.04 | 4:320.30–0.04 | 1:220.00–0.00 | 1:440.00–0.02 | 0:580.00–0.10 | 1:120.00–0.38 | ||||||
| Nylander–Matthews–Maccelli | 1:300.03–0.00 | 2:090.10–0.00 | 1:460.13–0.24 | 1:110.29–0.01 | 0:580.02–0.18 | 0:460.01–0.00 | 1:480.11–0.00 | 4:290.44–0.37 | 1:110.00–0.08 | |||||||
| Domi–Joshua–Robertson | 2:150.22–0.20 | 1:590.04–0.02 | 2:540.00–0.01 | 0:360.07–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.13 | 2:340.04–0.00 | 3:400.00–0.22 | 2:070.07–0.13 | 0:360.22–0.00 | |||||||
| Jarnkrok–Lorentz–Quillan | 0:410.00–0.24 | 0:530.00–0.04 | 0:390.00–0.03 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 1:360.04–0.04 | 1:590.00–0.50 | ||||||||||
| Stecher–Benoit | 2:010.22–0.23 | 1:130.04–0.02 | 5:050.01–0.13 | 0:340.00–0.03 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.13 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 3:310.05–0.04 | 3:290.00–0.25 | 2:150.00–0.16 | 0:440.22–0.00 | 0:360.17–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.09 | |||
| McCabe–Carlo | 2:260.16–0.20 | 2:230.06–0.26 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:420.29–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.00 | 2:500.22–0.00 | 3:230.00–0.46 | 0:380.43–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Rielly | 1:360.12–0.00 | 1:470.13–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.04 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:490.02–0.09 | 2:140.22–0.04 | 3:080.15–0.12 | 1:180.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Rielly–Carlo | 0:500.00–0.18 | 1:480.00–0.08 | 0:580.09–0.00 | 1:480.00–0.24 | 1:120.00–0.00 | 1:290.09–0.00 | 1:420.00–0.25 | 0:340.00–0.08 | 0:540.00–0.18 | |||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–McCabe | 2:140.03–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 1:140.07–0.02 | 0:390.00–0.16 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:370.03–0.00 | 2:040.07–0.02 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TORTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Jake McCabeTOR | 31 | 22:11 | 0:43 | 1:50 | 1 | 5 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 26 | 20:54 | 0:48 | 1:42 | 1 | 1 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 20 | 20:45 | 1:02 | 2:11 | 2 | 4 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 27 | 20:39 | 0:46 | 1:22 | 8 | 0 |
 Matthew KniesTOR | 21 | 19:58 | 0:57 | 1:40 | 4 | 2 |
 Brandon CarloTOR | 29 | 19:56 | 0:41 | 1:51 | 1 | 5 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 25 | 19:45 | 0:47 | 2:13 | 2 | 4 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 21 | 19:17 | 0:55 | 1:54 | 2 | 1 |
 John TavaresTOR | 19 | 19:13 | 1:01 | 2:34 | 4 | 2 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 24 | 18:50 | 0:47 | 1:18 | 0 | 9 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR | 26 | 18:49 | 0:43 | 1:19 | 5 | 1 |
 J.J. MoserTBL | 19 | 18:44 | 0:59 | 2:14 | 0 | 6 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 20 | 18:36 | 0:56 | 2:56 | 6 | 0 |
 William NylanderTOR | 20 | 17:53 | 0:54 | 1:33 | 5 | 1 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 21 | 17:25 | 0:50 | 1:22 | 1 | 5 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 18 | 17:06 | 0:57 | 2:00 | 5 | 0 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 18 | 16:52 | 0:56 | 1:41 | 5 | 0 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 23 | 16:33 | 0:43 | 1:27 | 4 | 4 |
 Troy StecherTOR | 25 | 16:07 | 0:39 | 1:26 | 1 | 4 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousTBL | 18 | 16:04 | 0:54 | 2:09 | 1 | 1 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 23 | 15:43 | 0:41 | 1:09 | 0 | 10 |
 Easton CowanTOR | 19 | 15:18 | 0:48 | 1:21 | 1 | 2 |
 Simon BenoitTOR | 24 | 15:13 | 0:38 | 1:26 | 1 | 3 |
 Nick RobertsonTOR | 20 | 15:08 | 0:45 | 1:16 | 1 | 2 |
 Corey PerryTBL | 19 | 14:58 | 0:47 | 1:18 | 2 | 2 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandTBL | 21 | 14:56 | 0:43 | 1:33 | 6 | 3 |
 Matias MaccelliTOR | 17 | 14:07 | 0:50 | 1:07 | 2 | 1 |
 Dakota JoshuaTOR | 19 | 14:06 | 0:45 | 1:26 | 1 | 2 |
 Pontus HolmbergTBL | 19 | 14:01 | 0:44 | 1:26 | 3 | 3 |
 Max DomiTOR | 17 | 13:39 | 0:48 | 1:25 | 1 | 2 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsTBL | 20 | 13:18 | 0:40 | 1:08 | 2 | 4 |
 Calle JarnkrokTOR | 18 | 11:55 | 0:40 | 1:40 | 0 | 5 |
 Steven LorentzTOR | 17 | 11:50 | 0:42 | 1:36 | 0 | 5 |
 Scott SabourinTBL | 12 | 10:07 | 0:51 | 1:24 | 0 | 0 |
 Conor GeekieTBL | 14 | 10:04 | 0:43 | 1:12 | 1 | 0 |
 Jacob QuillanTOR | 13 | 8:44 | 0:40 | 1:20 | 0 | 1 |