Sun, Mar 8, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Buffalo Sabres 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 410 | 313 | 729 |
| BUF | 110 | 315 | 417 | 842 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:26BUFJosh DoanPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 2:15BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 5:10BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Noah Ostlund · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 7:55TBLCorey PerryAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 11:07BUFAlex TuchSHAssists: Bowen Byram · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 12:26TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 14:46TBLZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Yanni Gourde, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
- P2 17:37TBLJ.J. MoserAssists: Conor Geekie · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
- P3 0:59TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 5:46TBLBrayden PointUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG6–4
- P3 6:12BUFSam CarrickAssists: Zach Benson, Michael Kesselring · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–5
- P3 9:48TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.11 xG7–5
- P3 11:03BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Tage Thompson, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.17 xG7–6
- P3 14:29BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Ryan McLeod · Backhand, 0.09 xG7–7
- P3 15:43BUFJosh DoanPPGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.22 xG7–8
Penalties (28)
- P1 4:36TBLDarren Raddysh: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:36TBLBrandon Hagel: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:36TBLDarren Raddysh: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 4:36BUFRasmus Dahlin: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:20TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P1 8:54BUFSam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:54TBLScott Sabourin: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:13TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:13BUFBowen Byram: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:13TBLBrandon Hagel: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:13BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:13BUFBowen Byram: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:13TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Misconduct10 min
- P1 10:40BUFMattias Samuelsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:40TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:59TBLErik Cernak: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:59BUFMichael Kesselring: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:41BUFNoah Ostlund: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:02BUFMichael Kesselring: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:02TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 0:06TBLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:06BUFBeck Malenstyn: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:31TBLRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:35TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:35TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:56BUFOwen Power: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:03TBLZemgus Girgensons: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00TBLAnthony Cirelli: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel9:02
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Perry – Sabourin – Geekie3:34
xG 0.18–0.10 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- Guentzel – Bjorkstrand – Point5:19
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg7:44
xG 0.58–0.57 (50%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – D'Astous9:21
xG 1.22–0.32 (79%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Hedman – Raddysh2:56
xG 0.35–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak3:26
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Quinn10:40
xG 0.91–0.16 (85%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Thompson – Ostlund – Benson2:30
xG 0.52–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Carrick – Malenstyn – Benson4:20
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs5:21
xG 0.12–0.45 (21%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram3:54
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Byram2:57
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power3:33
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).