Sun, Mar 8, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Buffalo Sabres 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
45%
39%
BUF winsTBL wins
Tampa Bay Lightning
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 J.J. MoserD · #90 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 3 | 26:17 | 0.40 | 51.2% | +63.6 |
 Darren RaddyshD · #43 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 4 | 23:13 | 0.20 | 67.9% | +29.1 |
 Ryan McDonaghD · #27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:41 | 0.01 | 79.9% | 0.0 |
 Victor HedmanD · #77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 20:07 | 0.12 | 56.9% | 0.0 |
 Nikita KucherovRW · #86 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 19:15 | 0.38 | 63.0% | +34.4 |
 Anthony CirelliC · #71 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 18:55 | 0.24 | 59.5% | +15.8 |
 Yanni GourdeC · #37 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:39 | 0.22 | 46.4% | +13.6 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousD · #51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 18:37 | 0.08 | 64.6% | 0.0 |
 Jake GuentzelC · #59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 17:44 | 0.17 | 65.8% | 0.0 |
 Brayden PointC · #21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17:13 | 1.39 | 81.6% | +16.5 |
 Brandon HagelLW · #38 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:42 | 0.43 | 62.1% | +36.9 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsC · #28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:48 | 0.24 | 48.1% | +13.6 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandRW · #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:02 | 0.17 | 77.0% | 0.0 |
 Pontus HolmbergRW · #29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0.06 | 45.1% | 0.0 |
 Corey PerryRW · #10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 8:54 | 0.15 | 82.7% | +6.9 |
 Conor GeekieC · #14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7:33 | 0.07 | 69.7% | +28.9 |
 Erik CernakD · #81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:47 | 0.00 | 72.1% | 0.0 |
 Scott SabourinRW · #46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:17 | 0.00 | 60.5% | 0.0 |
 Jonas Johansson#31 | L | 42 | 34 | 8 | .810 | 3.90 | −4.1 | 58:54 |
Buffalo Sabres
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Owen PowerD · #25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −4 | 0 | 27:08 | 0.03 | 26.3% | 0.0 |
 Rasmus DahlinD · #26 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 1 | 26:16 | 0.17 | 51.7% | +65.7 |
 Mattias SamuelssonD · #23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 3 | 24:57 | 0.12 | 31.6% | 0.0 |
 Ryan McLeodC · #71 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 21:03 | 0.16 | 64.9% | +29.5 |
 Bowen ByramD · #4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20:12 | 0.88 | 33.2% | +37.3 |
 Tage ThompsonC · #72 | 0 | 4 | 4 | −1 | 3 | 19:39 | 0.18 | 52.7% | +49.1 |
 Alex TuchRW · #89 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18:54 | 0.30 | 21.1% | +14.9 |
 Josh DoanRW · #91 | 2 | 0 | 2 | −2 | 4 | 18:25 | 1.03 | 4.4% | +53.3 |
 Josh NorrisC · #9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 17:55 | 0.10 | 8.6% | 0.0 |
 Jason ZuckerLW · #17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 16:42 | 0.70 | 74.9% | +80.1 |
 Noah OstlundC · #86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 2 | 16:34 | 0.23 | 23.1% | +7.4 |
 Jack QuinnRW · #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15:19 | 0.31 | 78.8% | 0.0 |
 Zach BensonLW · #6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 14:15 | 0.10 | 61.5% | +16.1 |
 Zach MetsaD · #73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:55 | 0.00 | 9.3% | 0.0 |
 Peyton KrebsC · #19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 1 | 8:46 | 0.03 | 14.7% | 0.0 |
 Sam CarrickC · #10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −2 | 3 | 6:03 | 0.20 | 12.3% | +16.1 |
 Beck MalenstynLW · #29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 6:03 | 0.00 | 33.9% | 0.0 |
 Michael KesselringD · #8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 6:03 | 0.03 | 94.6% | +16.1 |
 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen#1 | W | 28 | 22 | 7 | .786 | 4.32 | −2.7 | 59:21 |