Sun, Mar 8, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Buffalo Sabres 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
45%
39%
BUF winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Kucherov–Cirelli–Hagel | Gourde–Girgensons–Holmberg | Guentzel–Bjorkstrand–Point | Perry–Sabourin–Geekie | Gourde–Girgensons–Bjorkstrand | Guentzel–Point–Holmberg | Perry–Guentzel–Point | Gourde–Girgensons–Geekie | Raddysh–Moser | McDonagh–D'Astous | Hedman–D'Astous | Hedman–Cernak | Hedman–Raddysh | Hedman–Moser | McDonagh–Moser | Raddysh–D'Astous | Cernak–Moser | McDonagh–Raddysh | D'Astous–Moser | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zucker–McLeod–Quinn | 3:070.42–0.00 | 3:140.18–0.09 | 0:400.07–0.00 | 1:380.01–0.00 | 3:490.44–0.00 | 3:160.23–0.13 | 1:160.14–0.03 | 0:440.01–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Norris–Doan–Ostlund | 0:510.00–0.16 | 0:300.00–0.06 | 1:310.00–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.02 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.07 | 2:030.00–0.08 | 0:470.02–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.16 | 0:380.00–0.10 | 0:440.00–0.18 | 0:410.00–0.14 | 0:300.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Tuch–Thompson–Krebs | 3:110.04–0.25 | 0:470.00–0.20 | 0:320.08–0.00 | 2:470.00–0.34 | 0:460.01–0.00 | 1:140.08–0.11 | |||||||||||||
| Carrick–Malenstyn–Benson | 0:370.00–0.01 | 1:530.03–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.02 | 0:320.05–0.00 | 1:140.03–0.01 | 0:320.05–0.00 | 0:560.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:380.12–0.02 | ||||||||||
| Thompson–Ostlund–Benson | 1:180.35–0.00 | 1:070.20–0.00 | 0:300.14–0.00 | 0:340.18–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Tuch–Norris–Doan | 1:110.05–0.02 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:420.01–0.02 | ||||||||||||||||
| McLeod–Quinn–Benson | 0:440.00–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| Tuch–Ostlund–Benson | 1:190.00–0.06 | 1:100.00–0.06 | |||||||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Power | 1:570.14–0.23 | 1:530.00–0.29 | 1:460.05–0.06 | 0:420.01–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 1:420.00–0.29 | 2:020.19–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.01 | 1:110.00–0.06 | 0:530.00–0.09 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.21 | |||||
| Byram–Power | 1:370.00–0.13 | 0:400.04–0.06 | 2:030.00–0.03 | 3:030.12–0.20 | 1:320.00–1.07 | 1:240.07–0.02 | 1:140.00–0.20 | ||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Dahlin | 1:180.06–0.11 | 1:090.05–0.16 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 1:310.08–0.13 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 1:010.00–0.14 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.10 | 0:340.00–0.18 | 0:460.03–0.14 | |||||||||
| Dahlin–Byram | 1:330.10–0.01 | 0:440.17–0.00 | 0:320.05–0.00 | 2:140.27–0.01 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:400.05–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Dahlin–Power | 0:560.17–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:570.17–0.00 | 0:310.09–0.07 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Dahlin–Metsa | 0:420.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.02 | 1:480.00–0.08 | ||||||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Byram | 0:410.01–0.00 | 0:340.18–0.00 | 0:510.01–0.00 | 1:120.14–0.06 | 0:340.18–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Kesselring–Power | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.02 | 0:520.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:380.12–0.02 | |||||||||||||
| Dahlin–Kesselring | 0:450.14–0.00 | 0:510.03–0.00 | 0:340.14–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Kesselring | 0:470.07–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Metsa | 0:310.00–0.16 | 0:400.00–0.16 | |||||||||||||||||
| Power–Metsa | 0:350.00–0.04 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Owen PowerBUF | 29 | 27:08 | 0:56 | 1:51 | 1 | 4 |
 J.J. MoserTBL | 29 | 26:17 | 0:54 | 2:14 | 2 | 6 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 30 | 26:16 | 0:53 | 1:29 | 8 | 1 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 28 | 24:57 | 0:53 | 1:51 | 4 | 6 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 26 | 23:13 | 0:54 | 1:30 | 3 | 3 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 26 | 21:03 | 0:49 | 2:10 | 5 | 4 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 26 | 20:41 | 0:48 | 1:30 | 1 | 5 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 25 | 20:12 | 0:48 | 2:24 | 3 | 1 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 27 | 20:07 | 0:45 | 1:47 | 0 | 2 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 22 | 19:39 | 0:54 | 2:21 | 3 | 1 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 24 | 19:15 | 0:48 | 1:31 | 5 | 4 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 27 | 18:55 | 0:42 | 1:13 | 4 | 6 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 24 | 18:54 | 0:47 | 2:09 | 2 | 1 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 25 | 18:39 | 0:45 | 1:15 | 0 | 8 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousTBL | 24 | 18:37 | 0:47 | 1:29 | 0 | 3 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 24 | 18:25 | 0:46 | 1:47 | 6 | 2 |
 Josh NorrisBUF | 23 | 17:55 | 0:47 | 1:48 | 5 | 1 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 20 | 17:44 | 0:53 | 1:40 | 2 | 1 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 19 | 17:13 | 0:54 | 1:51 | 2 | 1 |
 Jason ZuckerBUF | 22 | 16:42 | 0:46 | 1:50 | 10 | 1 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 23 | 16:42 | 0:44 | 1:22 | 3 | 4 |
 Noah OstlundBUF | 23 | 16:34 | 0:43 | 1:57 | 4 | 2 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsTBL | 21 | 15:48 | 0:45 | 1:15 | 0 | 6 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 21 | 15:19 | 0:44 | 1:16 | 4 | 1 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 22 | 14:15 | 0:39 | 1:12 | 2 | 0 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandTBL | 17 | 14:02 | 0:50 | 1:42 | 1 | 2 |
 Pontus HolmbergTBL | 17 | 13:17 | 0:47 | 1:20 | 0 | 3 |
 Zach MetsaBUF | 13 | 8:55 | 0:41 | 1:17 | 1 | 0 |
 Corey PerryTBL | 13 | 8:54 | 0:41 | 1:42 | 0 | 0 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 12 | 8:46 | 0:44 | 1:08 | 1 | 0 |
 Conor GeekieTBL | 12 | 7:33 | 0:38 | 1:09 | 0 | 0 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 13 | 6:49 | 0:31 | 1:11 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam CarrickBUF | 10 | 6:03 | 0:36 | 0:53 | 1 | 0 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 12 | 6:03 | 0:30 | 0:46 | 1 | 0 |
 Michael KesselringBUF | 14 | 6:03 | 0:26 | 0:49 | 2 | 0 |
 Scott SabourinTBL | 10 | 4:17 | 0:26 | 0:47 | 0 | 0 |