Sun, Mar 8, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Buffalo Sabres 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Play-by-play
Model-basedEvery event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.
- P1 0:00Period start
- P1 4:18Shot by Raddysh, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 4:36Raddysh: Slashing (2 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, Krebs, Byram · TBL Kucherov, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser
- P1 4:36Hagel: Boarding (2 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, Krebs, Byram · TBL Kucherov, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser
- P1 4:36Raddysh: Fighting (5 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, Krebs, Byram · TBL Kucherov, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser
- P1 4:36Dahlin: Fighting (5 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, Krebs, Byram · TBL Kucherov, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser
- P1 5:29Shot by Byram, saved by Johansson5v3
- P1 5:30Shot by Byram, saved by Johansson5v3
- P1 5:46Shot by Norris, saved by Johansson5v3
- P1 6:48Shot by Carrick, saved by Johansson
- P1 7:14Shot by Moser, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 8:20Cernak: Interference (2 min)6v5
On ice: BUF Thompson, Norris, Samuelsson, Doan, Ostlund, Metsa · TBL Hedman, Gourde, Bjorkstrand, Cernak, Hagel
- P1 8:26Goal by Doan (Thompson, Byram)5v4+15 pts WP
On ice: BUF Zucker, Thompson, Norris, Byram, Doan · TBL McDonagh, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser
- P1 8:54Carrick: Fighting (5 min)
On ice: BUF Carrick, Malenstyn, Kesselring, Power, Benson · TBL Perry, Hedman, Sabourin, Cernak, Geekie
- P1 8:54Sabourin: Fighting (5 min)
On ice: BUF Carrick, Malenstyn, Kesselring, Power, Benson · TBL Perry, Hedman, Sabourin, Cernak, Geekie
- P1 8:56Shot by Byram, saved by Johansson
- P1 9:13D'Astous: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Byram · TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous
- P1 9:13Byram: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Byram · TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous
- P1 9:13Hagel: Fighting (5 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Byram · TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous
- P1 9:13Krebs: Fighting (5 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Byram · TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous
- P1 9:13Byram: Misconduct (10 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Byram · TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous
- P1 9:13D'Astous: Misconduct (10 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Byram · TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous
- P1 9:50Shot by Hedman, saved by Luukkonen4v4
- P1 10:12Shot by Kesselring, saved by Johansson4v4
- P1 10:39Shot by Kucherov, saved by Luukkonen4v4
- P1 10:40Samuelsson: Slashing (2 min)4v4
On ice: BUF Tuch, McLeod, Samuelsson, Dahlin · TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Point, Moser
- P1 10:40Kucherov: Slashing (2 min)4v4
On ice: BUF Tuch, McLeod, Samuelsson, Dahlin · TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Point, Moser
- P1 14:06Shot by Zucker, saved by Johansson
- P1 14:38Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Luukkonen
- P1 14:57Shot by Thompson, saved by Johansson
- P1 14:59Cernak: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Kesselring, Power, Benson · TBL McDonagh, Sabourin, Bjorkstrand, Cernak, Geekie
- P1 14:59Kesselring: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Kesselring, Power, Benson · TBL McDonagh, Sabourin, Bjorkstrand, Cernak, Geekie
- P1 15:17Shot by Hedman, saved by Luukkonen4v4
- P1 16:41Ostlund: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)4v4
On ice: BUF Norris, Dahlin, Ostlund, Metsa · TBL McDonagh, Hedman, Cirelli, Hagel
- P1 17:14Shot by Tuch, saved by Johansson4v5
- P1 0:00Period end
- P2 0:00Period start
- P2 0:02Kesselring: Fighting (5 min)
On ice: BUF Zucker, McLeod, Kesselring, Quinn, Power · TBL Perry, Hedman, Sabourin, Cernak, Geekie
- P2 0:02Cernak: Fighting (5 min)
On ice: BUF Zucker, McLeod, Kesselring, Quinn, Power · TBL Perry, Hedman, Sabourin, Cernak, Geekie
- P2 0:06Perry: Fighting (5 min)
On ice: BUF Carrick, Malenstyn, Power, Benson, Metsa · TBL Perry, Hedman, Sabourin, Raddysh, Geekie
- P2 0:06Malenstyn: Fighting (5 min)
On ice: BUF Carrick, Malenstyn, Power, Benson, Metsa · TBL Perry, Hedman, Sabourin, Raddysh, Geekie
- P2 0:57Shot by Krebs, saved by Johansson
- P2 1:22Shot by McLeod, saved by Johansson6v5
- P2 1:29Shot by Samuelsson, saved by Johansson6v5
- P2 1:31McDonagh: High sticking (2 min)6v5
On ice: BUF Thompson, McLeod, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Krebs, Quinn · TBL McDonagh, Cirelli, Hagel, Holmberg, Moser
- P2 1:40Shot by Thompson, saved by Johansson5v4
- P2 2:15Goal by Zucker (Dahlin, Thompson)5v4+12 pts WP
On ice: BUF Zucker, Thompson, Norris, Dahlin, Doan · TBL Hedman, Gourde, Girgensons, Moser
- P2 2:54Shot by Kucherov, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 3:35Hagel: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: BUF Norris, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Doan, Ostlund · TBL McDonagh, Bjorkstrand, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser
- P2 3:35Hagel: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: BUF Norris, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Doan, Ostlund · TBL McDonagh, Bjorkstrand, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser
- P2 5:10Goal by Tuch (Thompson, Ostlund)5v4+7 pts WP
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, McLeod, Byram, Ostlund · TBL Guentzel, Raddysh, Cirelli, Moser
- P2 6:04Shot by Tuch, saved by Johansson5v4
- P2 6:27Shot by Byram, saved by Johansson5v4
- P2 7:55Goal by Perry (Kucherov, Raddysh)+7 pts WP
On ice: BUF Carrick, Malenstyn, Byram, Power, Benson · TBL Perry, Hedman, Kucherov, Raddysh, Geekie
- P2 9:38Shot by Thompson, saved by Johansson
- P2 10:23Shot by McLeod, saved by Johansson
- P2 10:25Shot by Zucker, saved by Johansson
- P2 10:56Power: High sticking (2 min)
On ice: BUF McLeod, Dahlin, Quinn, Power, Benson · TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, D'Astous
- P2 11:07Goal by Tuch (Byram)4v5+7 pts WP
On ice: BUF Tuch, McLeod, Samuelsson, Byram · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, Raddysh
- P2 11:58Shot by Raddysh, saved by Luukkonen4v5
- P2 12:16Shot by Guentzel, saved by Luukkonen4v5
- P2 12:26Goal by Kucherov (Raddysh)4v5+6 pts WP
On ice: BUF Tuch, Samuelsson, Byram, Benson · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, Raddysh
- P2 12:53Shot by D'Astous, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 13:42Shot by Samuelsson, saved by Johansson
- P2 14:36Shot by Moser, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 14:46Goal by Girgensons (Gourde, Moser)+14 pts WP
On ice: BUF Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Power · TBL Gourde, Girgensons, Raddysh, Holmberg, Moser
- P2 15:20Shot by Carrick, saved by Johansson
- P2 17:37Goal by Moser (Geekie)+29 pts WP
On ice: BUF Norris, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Doan, Ostlund · TBL Perry, Hedman, Sabourin, Moser, Geekie
- P2 18:57Shot by Zucker, saved by Johansson
- P2 19:10Shot by Gourde, saved by Luukkonen
- P2 0:00Period end
- P3 0:00Period start
- P3 0:59Goal by Kucherov (Hagel, Moser)+21 pts WP
On ice: BUF Thompson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Quinn, Power · TBL Kucherov, Gourde, Raddysh, Hagel, Moser
- P3 1:37Shot by Hagel, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 3:55Shot by Byram, saved by Johansson
- P3 3:57Shot by Quinn, saved by Johansson
- P3 4:19Shot by Quinn, saved by Johansson
- P3 5:42Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 5:46Goal by Point, unassisted+16 pts WP
On ice: BUF Carrick, Byram, Doan, Power, Ostlund · TBL Perry, McDonagh, Bjorkstrand, Point, D'Astous
- P3 6:12Goal by Carrick (Benson, Kesselring)+16 pts WP
On ice: BUF Carrick, Malenstyn, Dahlin, Kesselring, Benson · TBL Perry, McDonagh, Sabourin, D'Astous, Geekie
- P3 7:50Shot by Ostlund, saved by Johansson
- P3 8:56Shot by Hedman, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 9:46Shot by Cirelli, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 9:48Goal by Hagel (Cirelli, Raddysh)+16 pts WP
On ice: BUF Carrick, Malenstyn, Samuelsson, Krebs, Power · TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel
- P3 10:17Shot by Zucker, saved by Johansson
- P3 10:36Shot by Raddysh, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 11:03Goal by Dahlin (Thompson, Byram)+15 pts WP
On ice: BUF Thompson, Dahlin, Byram, Ostlund, Benson · TBL Gourde, Girgensons, Raddysh, Holmberg, Moser
- P3 11:07Shot by Doan, saved by Johansson
- P3 11:24Shot by Doan, saved by Johansson
- P3 11:28Shot by Samuelsson, saved by Johansson
- P3 11:32Shot by Byram, saved by Johansson
- P3 11:34Shot by Quinn, saved by Johansson
- P3 12:52Shot by Benson, saved by Johansson
- P3 14:22Shot by Geekie, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 14:29Goal by Zucker (McLeod)+30 pts WP
On ice: BUF Zucker, McLeod, Dahlin, Quinn, Power · TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Hagel, D'Astous, Geekie
- P3 14:59Shot by Ostlund, saved by Johansson
- P3 15:00Shot by Byram, saved by Johansson
- P3 15:03Girgensons: Slashing (2 min)
On ice: BUF Thompson, Samuelsson, Byram, Ostlund, Benson · TBL Hedman, Gourde, Girgensons, Holmberg, Moser
- P3 15:43Goal by Doan (Zucker, Dahlin)5v4+39 pts WP
On ice: BUF Zucker, Thompson, Norris, Dahlin, Doan · TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Guentzel, Moser
- P3 16:25Shot by Raddysh, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 17:54Shot by Gourde, saved by Luukkonen
- P3 19:13Shot by Kucherov, saved by Luukkonen5v6
- P3 19:35Shot by Point, saved by Luukkonen5v6
- P3 0:00Cirelli: Charging (2 min)5v6
On ice: BUF Tuch, McLeod, Dahlin, Byram, Doan · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel
- P3 0:00Period end
- P3 0:00Final