Tue, Mar 10, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
San Jose Sharks 3, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 15 | 18 | 17 | 320 |
| BUF | 28 | 212 | 26 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12BUFJack QuinnAssists: Jason Zucker, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 5:39BUFAlex TuchAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Mattias Samuelsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 12:54SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 4:59BUFBeck MalenstynAssists: Peyton Krebs, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 8:51BUFJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Jack Quinn, Owen Power · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 19:29SJSKiefer SherwoodAssists: Mario Ferraro, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 0:42BUFJack QuinnAssists: Ryan McLeod, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 6:56SJSAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 17:14BUFJack QuinnENAssists: Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 15:34SJSZack Ostapchuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:34BUFLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:56SJSBarclay Goodrow: Instigator2 min
- P1 15:56BUFBeck Malenstyn: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:56SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:56SJSBarclay Goodrow: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 13:55BUFZach Benson: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:55SJSDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:55BUFTage Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:50BUFJason Zucker: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:35BUFLogan Stanley: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Eklund – Misa8:52
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk7:22
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf14:06
xG 0.68–1.11 (38%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Wennberg – Sherwood – Kurashev9:29
xG 0.11–0.76 (13%)attempts 5–15goals 1–4
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Dickinson15:36
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 19–11goals 1–2
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin16:12
xG 0.28–0.79 (26%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
- Orlov – Klingberg16:15
xG 0.42–1.25 (25%)attempts 13–18goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Quinn9:56
xG 0.60–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 3–0
- Thompson – Ostlund – Benson8:02
xG 0.68–0.19 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Carrick – Malenstyn – Benson2:41
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Tuch – Norris – Doan3:53
xG 0.34–0.05 (86%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power8:44
xG 0.74–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–1goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Byram5:26
xG 0.74–0.17 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power5:22
xG 0.56–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).