Tue, Mar 10, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 110 | 28 | 01 | 1 | 428 |
| CAR | 113 | 012 | 316 | 03 | 2 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46CARLogan StankovenAssists: Mike Reilly, Jackson Blake · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 19:04PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Ville Koivunen · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 11:44PITBryan RustPPAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 2:49CARMark JankowskiAssists: William Carrier, Alexander Nikishin · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 3:48CARSeth JarvisAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 11:21CARAlexander NikishinPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 17:52PITNoel AcciariAssists: Bryan Rust, Egor Chinakhov · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
- P3 19:24PITBryan RustAssists: Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.09 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CAR Seth Jarvis stopped
- 2. PIT Ben Kindel scored
- 3. CAR Andrei Svechnikov scored
- 4. PIT Egor Chinakhov stopped
- 5. CAR Jackson Blake scored
- 6. PIT Anthony Mantha stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:16PITConnor Clifton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:53CARJackson Blake: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:29CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:33CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:23CARWilliam Carrier: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 11:57PITNoel Acciari: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:57CARAlexander Nikishin: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:17PITParker Wotherspoon: Holding2 min
- P3 9:21PITRyan Shea: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:53PITParker Wotherspoon: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:42PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:31CARJaccob Slavin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Rakell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSoderblom – Hayes – Kindel7:37
xG 0.82–0.74 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Rust – Rakell – Chinakhov9:01
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Mantha – Novak – Koivunen6:44
xG 0.34–0.67 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte8:34
xG 0.34–0.92 (27%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon11:18
xG 1.01–0.25 (80%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Clifton – Solovyov8:40
xG 0.55–1.22 (31%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Letang – Shea10:48
xG 0.12–1.21 (9%)attempts 4–18goals 1–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis8:02
xG 0.92–0.42 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake10:30
xG 1.06–0.70 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson7:15
xG 0.62–0.46 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers8:45
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield13:18
xG 1.02–0.31 (77%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Reilly – Nikishin11:29
xG 0.93–0.75 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Walker – Miller13:24
xG 1.05–1.14 (48%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).