Thu, Mar 12, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 220 | 16 | 114 | 440 |
| TOR | 18 | 210 | 310 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:19TORMatias MaccelliUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:19ANACutter GauthierAssists: Chris Kreider, Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 14:26ANAIan MooreAssists: Jansen Harkins · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 2:55ANAPavel MintyukovAssists: Ryan Poehling, Jeffrey Viel · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 10:47TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Matthew Knies, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 16:26TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 0:36TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Matthew Knies, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 8:35TORBo GroulxSHGWGAssists: Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 18:12TORMatthew KniesENAssists: Jake McCabe, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–6
- P3 19:34ANAAlex KillornAssists: Jeffrey Viel, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–6
Penalties (24)
- P1 0:01ANAJeffrey Viel: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01TORMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:11TORMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:45TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:45TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:45ANAJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:31ANAChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:57TORPhilippe Myers: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:52ANAJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:47ANARadko Gudas: Kneeing5 min · PPG
- P2 15:47ANARadko Gudas: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 1:14ANAChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:10TORMax Domi: Interference2 min
- P3 8:10TORMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:19TORMorgan Rielly: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:19ANAJeffrey Viel: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:36TOREaston Cowan: Instigator2 min
- P3 13:36TOREaston Cowan: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:36ANAJackson LaCombe: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:36TOREaston Cowan: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 15:35ANABeckett Sennecke: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00ANAJeffrey Viel: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00ANAJeffrey Viel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Quillan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Viel – Poehling5:59
xG 0.95–0.28 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Kreider – Gauthier – Carlsson6:36
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Granlund – McTavish – Sennecke6:34
xG 0.28–0.73 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHelleson – Mintyukov3:30
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Trouba – LaCombe6:51
xG 0.69–0.17 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gudas – Zellweger4:37
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Tavares – Nylander – Maccelli2:15
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Groulx – Robertson – Maccelli5:38
xG 0.13–0.25 (33%)attempts 4–11goals 1–1
- Nylander – Matthews – Cowan7:58
xG 0.47–0.61 (44%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Tavares – Domi – Knies6:03
xG 0.42–0.73 (37%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Benoit2:09
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Myers – Benoit6:12
xG 0.52–0.49 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe6:28
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).