Thu, Mar 12, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 013 | 17 | 125 |
| TBL | 09 | 110 | 310 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:49TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 1:35TBLGage GoncalvesGWGAssists: Brayden Point · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 7:05DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 16:22TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 16:55TBLJake GuentzelENAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 16:14TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:47DETMarco Kasper: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kasper won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Compher – DeBrincat15:22
xG 1.26–0.75 (63%)attempts 26–12goals 1–2
- van Riemsdyk – Shine – Dries3:50
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Raymond – Kasper – Finnie14:29
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Brandsegg-Nygård7:05
xG 0.02–0.79 (2%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson22:17
xG 1.41–1.11 (56%)attempts 31–26goals 0–1
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson13:40
xG 0.42–0.57 (42%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Faulk15:51
xG 0.68–1.26 (35%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Goncalves13:33
xG 1.34–0.14 (91%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Holmberg11:19
xG 1.00–0.22 (82%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Girgensons – Sabourin8:18
xG 0.11–0.60 (15%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel11:47
xG 0.28–0.85 (24%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestD'Astous – Carlile12:31
xG 0.76–0.16 (83%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Raddysh19:22
xG 1.26–1.28 (49%)attempts 23–25goals 2–0
- Raddysh – D'Astous2:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).