Sat, Mar 14, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 16 | 02 | 01 | 0 | 218 |
| BUF | 110 | 112 | 010 | 01 | 2 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01BUFOwen PowerAssists: Zach Benson, Sam Carrick · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:09TORDakota JoshuaAssists: Nick Robertson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 0:53TORMax DomiAssists: William Nylander, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 11:21BUFJack QuinnPPAssists: Noah Ostlund, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 3. BUF Jack Quinn scored
- 4. TOR Easton Cowan stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:34TORMichael Pezzetta: Holding2 min
- P1 8:12BUFLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:12TORDakota Joshua: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:52TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:22BUFNoah Ostlund: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:22BUFLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:22TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:22BUFLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:22TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:42BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:51TORMichael Pezzetta: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:31TORMatthew Knies: Holding2 min
- P3 19:11BUFBowen Byram: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:11TORJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Jarnkrok – Pezzetta – Quillan3:05
xG 0.09–0.04 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Joshua – Groulx – Robertson8:00
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Domi – Knies – Cowan8:47
xG 0.11–0.47 (19%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Maccelli13:08
xG 0.41–1.00 (29%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:32
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carlo10:21
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- McCabe – Carlo3:42
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Benson7:05
xG 0.83–0.16 (84%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Norris – Doan – Ostlund10:07
xG 0.55–0.15 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Carrick – Malenstyn – Krebs4:56
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs3:32
xG 0.04–0.20 (17%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Metsa11:17
xG 1.16–0.21 (85%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Byram – Power14:28
xG 0.70–0.34 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Stanley9:15
xG 0.41–0.34 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).