Sat, Mar 14, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
72%
15%
BUF winsTOR wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TOR's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Tavares–Nylander–Maccelli | Domi–Knies–Cowan | Joshua–Groulx–Robertson | Jarnkrok–Pezzetta–Quillan | Domi–Robertson–Cowan | Jarnkrok–Groulx–Robertson | Ekman-Larsson–McCabe | Myers–Benoit | Rielly–Carlo | McCabe–Carlo | Ekman-Larsson–Rielly | Ekman-Larsson–Myers | Rielly–McCabe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norris–Doan–Ostlund | 2:170.09–0.00 | 2:480.15–0.11 | 1:100.09–0.04 | 0:530.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 1:530.00–0.00 | 2:150.14–0.11 | 2:250.41–0.00 | 1:160.00–0.00 | 1:130.00–0.04 | |||
| Zucker–McLeod–Quinn | 1:110.00–0.01 | 2:530.06–0.00 | 1:530.02–0.00 | 0:590.04–0.09 | 0:460.00–0.01 | 2:050.00–0.07 | 4:330.11–0.22 | 0:390.00–0.00 | |||||
| Tuch–Thompson–Benson | 5:030.74–0.16 | 0:520.09–0.00 | 3:390.42–0.00 | 1:240.40–0.02 | 0:400.00–0.13 | 0:310.01–0.00 | |||||||
| Carrick–Malenstyn–Krebs | 0:370.00–0.00 | 1:000.02–0.00 | 1:590.25–0.03 | 1:550.11–0.10 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:330.02–0.00 | 0:440.14–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.03 | |||||
| Carrick–Malenstyn–Benson | 0:360.07–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 1:450.06–0.40 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 0:350.07–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Tuch–Thompson–Krebs | 1:410.04–0.04 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.16 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 2:130.04–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.20 | |||||||
| Thompson–Krebs–Quinn | 0:390.05–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Byram–Power | 7:450.29–0.34 | 1:340.11–0.00 | 0:370.04–0.00 | 4:570.32–0.00 | 2:030.12–0.00 | 3:490.13–0.28 | 0:410.01–0.00 | 1:170.00–0.01 | |||||
| Dahlin–Metsa | 1:530.65–0.02 | 5:150.18–0.11 | 0:310.04–0.00 | 1:210.00–0.09 | 2:460.31–0.00 | 2:540.35–0.12 | 2:430.46–0.09 | 1:380.04–0.00 | |||||
| Schenn–Stanley | 0:570.00–0.00 | 1:270.24–0.00 | 4:250.14–0.24 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 2:390.25–0.10 | 3:220.15–0.16 | 1:280.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.04 | 0:300.00–0.03 | ||||
| Dahlin–Power | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.13 | |||||||||||
| Dahlin–Byram | 0:420.00–0.04 | 0:560.00–0.11 | |||||||||||
| Stanley–Power | 0:360.00–0.26 | ||||||||||||
| Byram–Metsa | 0:360.00–0.01 | 0:380.00–0.01 | |||||||||||
| Stanley–Byram | 0:480.00–0.01 | 0:450.00–0.01 | |||||||||||
| Power–Metsa | 0:360.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTORFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Jake McCabeTOR | 30 | 26:19 | 0:53 | 1:45 | 1 | 6 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 32 | 26:12 | 0:49 | 2:05 | 6 | 1 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 32 | 25:35 | 0:48 | 1:31 | 5 | 4 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 27 | 23:50 | 0:53 | 1:48 | 1 | 3 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR | 27 | 21:59 | 0:49 | 1:41 | 4 | 1 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 23 | 21:19 | 0:56 | 2:06 | 7 | 1 |
 William NylanderTOR | 25 | 21:18 | 0:51 | 1:31 | 5 | 3 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 29 | 20:52 | 0:43 | 1:04 | 5 | 4 |
 Matthew KniesTOR | 25 | 20:09 | 0:48 | 1:14 | 2 | 1 |
 John TavaresTOR | 23 | 19:50 | 0:52 | 1:25 | 5 | 3 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 29 | 19:33 | 0:40 | 1:47 | 5 | 1 |
 Matias MaccelliTOR | 21 | 19:25 | 0:55 | 2:20 | 4 | 2 |
 Brandon CarloTOR | 27 | 19:18 | 0:43 | 1:33 | 3 | 6 |
 Josh NorrisBUF | 22 | 19:13 | 0:52 | 2:16 | 4 | 1 |
 Bo GroulxTOR | 23 | 19:08 | 0:50 | 1:36 | 3 | 6 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 21 | 19:02 | 0:54 | 2:06 | 4 | 2 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 25 | 17:56 | 0:43 | 1:31 | 3 | 2 |
 Simon BenoitTOR | 23 | 17:05 | 0:45 | 1:30 | 0 | 4 |
 Philippe MyersTOR | 23 | 16:53 | 0:44 | 1:32 | 0 | 4 |
 Max DomiTOR | 20 | 16:47 | 0:50 | 1:35 | 0 | 1 |
 Jason ZuckerBUF | 19 | 16:24 | 0:52 | 2:15 | 6 | 1 |
 Logan StanleyBUF | 21 | 15:49 | 0:45 | 1:19 | 1 | 3 |
 Noah OstlundBUF | 23 | 15:46 | 0:41 | 1:17 | 3 | 1 |
 Zach MetsaBUF | 21 | 15:32 | 0:44 | 1:18 | 1 | 1 |
 Easton CowanTOR | 20 | 15:07 | 0:45 | 1:23 | 0 | 1 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 21 | 14:43 | 0:42 | 1:04 | 3 | 2 |
 Nick RobertsonTOR | 16 | 14:35 | 0:55 | 1:27 | 2 | 1 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 21 | 13:42 | 0:39 | 1:01 | 3 | 1 |
 Dakota JoshuaTOR | 17 | 11:58 | 0:42 | 1:14 | 3 | 0 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 19 | 11:27 | 0:36 | 1:05 | 1 | 2 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 17 | 11:13 | 0:40 | 1:14 | 2 | 1 |
 Luke SchennBUF | 17 | 11:02 | 0:39 | 1:16 | 1 | 4 |
 Calle JarnkrokTOR | 15 | 10:38 | 0:43 | 1:03 | 1 | 4 |
 Sam CarrickBUF | 19 | 10:34 | 0:33 | 1:03 | 0 | 3 |
 Jacob QuillanTOR | 15 | 10:10 | 0:41 | 1:41 | 0 | 1 |
 Michael PezzettaTOR | 11 | 6:29 | 0:35 | 0:59 | 0 | 1 |