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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 14, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Buffalo Sabres

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.

BUF winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:01Goal by Power (Benson, Carrick)+12 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Carrick, Malenstyn, Byram, Power, Benson · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Carlo, Maccelli

  3. P1 2:34Pezzetta: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Schenn, Tuch, Stanley, Thompson, Krebs · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Pezzetta, Quillan

  4. P1 2:38Shot by Thompson, saved by Woll5v4
  5. P1 2:44Shot by Thompson, saved by Woll5v4
  6. P1 2:54Shot by Thompson, saved by Woll5v4
  7. P1 3:40Shot by Dahlin, saved by Woll5v4
  8. P1 4:35Shot by Tuch, saved by Woll
  9. P1 5:15Shot by Nylander, saved by Lyon
  10. P1 6:09Goal by Joshua (Robertson)+14 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Schenn, Tuch, Stanley, Thompson, Krebs · TOR Joshua, Myers, Groulx, Benoit, Robertson

  11. P1 6:34Shot by Rielly, saved by Lyon
  12. P1 7:12Shot by Quillan, saved by Lyon
  13. P1 8:12Schenn: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Schenn, Carrick, Malenstyn, Stanley, Benson · TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Joshua, Groulx, Robertson

  14. P1 8:12Joshua: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Schenn, Carrick, Malenstyn, Stanley, Benson · TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Joshua, Groulx, Robertson

  15. P1 9:06Shot by Norris, saved by Woll
  16. P1 9:13Shot by Dahlin, saved by Woll
  17. P1 9:39Shot by Myers, saved by Lyon
  18. P1 10:17Shot by Groulx, saved by Lyon
  19. P1 10:52Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Stanley, McLeod, Quinn, Power, Benson · TOR Rielly, McCabe, Pezzetta, Knies, Quillan

  20. P1 12:01Shot by Quillan, saved by Lyon5v4
  21. P1 12:58Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Lyon
  22. P1 15:01Shot by Groulx, saved by Lyon
  23. P1 15:22Ostlund: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Schenn, Stanley, Norris, Doan, Ostlund · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Joshua, Groulx, Robertson

  24. P1 15:22Schenn: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Schenn, Stanley, Norris, Doan, Ostlund · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Joshua, Groulx, Robertson

  25. P1 15:22Ekman-Larsson: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Schenn, Stanley, Norris, Doan, Ostlund · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Joshua, Groulx, Robertson

  26. P1 15:22Schenn: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Schenn, Stanley, Norris, Doan, Ostlund · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Joshua, Groulx, Robertson

  27. P1 15:22Ekman-Larsson: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Schenn, Stanley, Norris, Doan, Ostlund · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Joshua, Groulx, Robertson

  28. P1 15:57Shot by McLeod, saved by Woll4v5
  29. P1 17:54Shot by Krebs, saved by Woll
  30. P1 0:00Period end
  31. P2 0:00Period start
  32. P2 0:38Shot by Maccelli, saved by Lyon
  33. P2 0:53Goal by Domi (Nylander, Knies)+17 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Zucker, McLeod, Dahlin, Byram, Quinn · TOR Rielly, Domi, Nylander, Carlo, Knies

  34. P2 1:10Shot by Quinn, saved by Woll
  35. P2 2:15Shot by Doan, saved by Woll
  36. P2 2:53Shot by Metsa, saved by Woll
  37. P2 3:24Shot by McLeod, saved by Woll
  38. P2 3:38Shot by Nylander, saved by Lyon
  39. P2 4:22Shot by Benson, saved by Woll
  40. P2 6:40Shot by Pezzetta, saved by Lyon
  41. P2 6:42Dahlin: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Zucker, McLeod, Dahlin, Quinn, Metsa · TOR Jarnkrok, Rielly, Carlo, Pezzetta, Quillan

  42. P2 8:59Shot by Tuch, saved by Woll
  43. P2 9:11Shot by Doan, saved by Woll
  44. P2 9:13Shot by Tuch, saved by Woll
  45. P2 9:51Pezzetta: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Norris, Doan, Power, Ostlund, Metsa · TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Carlo, Pezzetta, Groulx

  46. P2 10:11Shot by Thompson, saved by Woll5v4
  47. P2 11:21Goal by Quinn (Ostlund, McLeod)5v4+18 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Tuch, McLeod, Byram, Quinn, Ostlund · TOR Jarnkrok, Myers, Benoit, Knies

  48. P2 12:56Shot by Doan, saved by Woll
  49. P2 14:34Shot by Robertson, saved by Lyon
  50. P2 14:49Shot by Carrick, saved by Woll
  51. P2 16:37Shot by Benoit, saved by Lyon
  52. P2 0:00Period end
  53. P3 0:00Period start
  54. P3 2:01Shot by Tuch, saved by Woll
  55. P3 3:38Shot by Dahlin, saved by Woll
  56. P3 5:24Shot by Schenn, saved by Woll
  57. P3 5:59Shot by Krebs, saved by Woll
  58. P3 6:31Knies: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Norris, Byram, Doan, Power, Ostlund · TOR Jarnkrok, Myers, Benoit, Knies, Quillan

  59. P3 8:43Shot by Byram, saved by Woll
  60. P3 9:14Shot by Tuch, saved by Woll
  61. P3 10:04Shot by Schenn, saved by Woll
  62. P3 11:38Shot by Maccelli, saved by Lyon
  63. P3 13:11Shot by Stanley, saved by Woll
  64. P3 13:31Shot by Zucker, saved by Woll
  65. P3 14:20Shot by Krebs, saved by Woll
  66. P3 18:02Shot by Myers, saved by Lyon
  67. P3 19:11Byram: Holding the stick (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Norris, Byram, Doan, Power, Ostlund · TOR Tavares, McCabe, Carlo, Knies, Cowan

  68. P3 19:11Tavares: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Norris, Byram, Doan, Power, Ostlund · TOR Tavares, McCabe, Carlo, Knies, Cowan

  69. P3 0:00Period end4v4
  70. OT 0:00Period start
  71. OT 1:02Shot by Norris, saved by Woll3v3
  72. OT 1:09Shot by Cowan, saved by Lyon3v3
  73. OT 5:00Period end3v3
  74. SO Period start
  75. SO Shot by Nylander, saved by Lyonother
  76. SO Goal by Quinn, unassistedother
  77. SO Goal by Tuch, unassistedother
  78. SO Period endother
  79. SO Finalother