Sat, Mar 14, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 213 | 011 | 211 | 435 |
| TBL | 010 | 27 | 02 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Sebastian Aho, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 17:28CARSebastian AhoAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 14:10TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Victor Hedman, Pontus Holmberg · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 15:31TBLCharle-Edouard D'AstousAssists: Brayden Point, Gage Goncalves · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 9:18CARJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 18:29CARLogan StankovenENAssists: Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.44 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:27CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:40TBLYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:29CARSeth Jarvis: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:29CARSeth Jarvis: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:29TBLZemgus Girgensons: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:32TBLPontus Holmberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:32CARSebastian Aho: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:05CARSean Walker: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:20TBLBrandon Hagel: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Ehlers8:58
xG 0.50–0.01 (97%)attempts 18–1goals 1–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake10:10
xG 1.00–0.66 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson6:59
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Aho – Svechnikov – Blake2:04
xG 0.01–0.17 (5%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield16:37
xG 0.89–0.39 (70%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Reilly – Nikishin10:43
xG 0.72–0.40 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Walker – Miller16:05
xG 1.06–0.78 (58%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Girgensons – Holmberg5:14
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves3:50
xG 0.31–0.11 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel4:22
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – Holmberg – Goncalves2:31
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser11:45
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak4:20
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- McDonagh – D'Astous9:35
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).