Sat, Mar 14, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
18%
69%
TBL winsCAR wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against CAR's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Aho–Svechnikov–Jarvis | Hall–Stankoven–Blake | Staal–Martinook–Ehlers | Jankowski–Carrier–Robinson | Aho–Svechnikov–Blake | Slavin–Chatfield | Walker–Miller | Reilly–Nikishin | Chatfield–Nikishin | Slavin–Miller | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perry–Bjorkstrand–Paul | 1:510.17–0.00 | 3:360.01–0.09 | 1:260.02–0.33 | 1:360.00–0.02 | 1:480.01–0.04 | 3:450.19–0.35 | ||||
| Gourde–Girgensons–Holmberg | 2:230.21–0.13 | 1:230.17–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.02 | 1:580.17–0.00 | 1:530.21–0.05 | |||||
| Kucherov–Cirelli–Hagel | 2:020.27–0.07 | 1:200.00–0.04 | 1:560.09–0.07 | 2:110.18–0.04 | ||||||
| Guentzel–Point–Goncalves | 1:430.00–0.30 | 1:040.00–0.30 | 2:000.00–0.61 | 1:210.10–0.00 | ||||||
| Kucherov–Point–Goncalves | 1:110.31–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.04 | 0:370.00–0.06 | 0:330.00–0.01 | 0:560.00–0.00 | 1:580.31–0.05 | 0:310.00–0.06 | |||
| Guentzel–Cirelli–Hagel | 0:350.00–0.21 | 2:240.07–0.00 | 1:340.03–0.00 | 1:100.00–0.41 | 0:330.05–0.00 | |||||
| Gourde–Holmberg–Goncalves | 2:150.00–0.04 | 1:270.00–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Kucherov–Guentzel–Point | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.02 | 0:570.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Gourde–Hagel–Holmberg | 1:230.21–0.00 | 1:070.15–0.00 | ||||||||
| Gourde–Bjorkstrand–Holmberg | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.22 | 0:350.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Kucherov–Guentzel–Cirelli | 0:490.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Raddysh–Moser | 4:590.14–0.08 | 3:090.40–0.15 | 1:140.00–0.04 | 0:560.00–0.00 | 5:090.12–0.09 | 3:430.31–0.16 | 1:450.11–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.01 | ||
| McDonagh–D'Astous | 1:000.07–0.00 | 1:380.18–0.09 | 3:260.00–0.06 | 2:110.15–0.32 | 2:340.00–0.07 | 3:570.28–0.07 | 2:200.07–0.32 | 0:330.05–0.00 | ||
| Hedman–Cernak | 2:000.00–0.05 | 1:530.00–0.30 | 2:060.01–0.34 | 1:200.17–0.00 | 2:190.00–0.62 | 3:210.18–0.00 | 1:360.00–0.08 | |||
| Raddysh–D'Astous | 1:090.00–0.17 | 1:020.00–0.02 | 1:110.00–0.06 | 1:130.00–0.00 | 1:520.00–0.19 | 1:240.00–0.06 | ||||
| McDonagh–Cernak | 1:100.21–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.02 | 0:340.00–0.02 | 0:380.02–0.01 | 0:410.00–0.01 | 0:470.00–0.02 | 1:220.00–0.23 | 1:490.23–0.03 | ||
| Hedman–Moser | 1:120.00–0.21 | 0:580.07–0.03 | 1:300.03–0.00 | 2:300.10–0.03 | 1:050.00–0.41 | |||||
| McDonagh–Moser | 0:330.17–0.03 | 0:510.17–0.04 | ||||||||
| Hedman–D'Astous | 0:320.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TBLCARFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Jaccob SlavinCAR | 27 | 24:16 | 0:54 | 1:22 | 1 | 5 |
 K'Andre MillerCAR | 28 | 24:05 | 0:52 | 1:45 | 3 | 1 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 24 | 23:14 | 0:58 | 1:57 | 4 | 2 |
 Jalen ChatfieldCAR | 28 | 23:10 | 0:50 | 1:45 | 0 | 4 |
 J.J. MoserTBL | 26 | 20:55 | 0:48 | 1:28 | 3 | 2 |
 Sebastian AhoCAR | 25 | 20:28 | 0:49 | 1:33 | 4 | 1 |
 Sean WalkerCAR | 26 | 20:13 | 0:47 | 1:39 | 2 | 2 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 21 | 20:00 | 0:57 | 2:42 | 4 | 1 |
 Andrei SvechnikovCAR | 24 | 19:24 | 0:49 | 1:50 | 4 | 1 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 23 | 19:22 | 0:51 | 1:30 | 4 | 2 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 23 | 18:30 | 0:48 | 1:29 | 5 | 4 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 24 | 18:27 | 0:46 | 2:37 | 1 | 4 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 24 | 18:11 | 0:45 | 1:27 | 2 | 3 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousTBL | 21 | 18:03 | 0:52 | 1:31 | 2 | 2 |
 Jackson BlakeCAR | 19 | 17:56 | 0:57 | 1:38 | 2 | 0 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 20 | 17:35 | 0:53 | 2:03 | 2 | 1 |
 Seth JarvisCAR | 21 | 16:14 | 0:46 | 1:10 | 4 | 1 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 19 | 16:13 | 0:51 | 2:03 | 3 | 1 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 21 | 16:01 | 0:46 | 2:38 | 1 | 5 |
 Gage GoncalvesTBL | 22 | 15:40 | 0:43 | 1:18 | 2 | 1 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 20 | 15:20 | 0:46 | 1:12 | 2 | 3 |
 Logan StankovenCAR | 18 | 14:51 | 0:50 | 1:24 | 3 | 0 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandTBL | 20 | 14:19 | 0:43 | 1:47 | 4 | 2 |
 Nikolaj EhlersCAR | 21 | 14:19 | 0:41 | 1:21 | 2 | 1 |
 Taylor HallCAR | 18 | 14:17 | 0:48 | 1:25 | 3 | 0 |
 Alexander NikishinCAR | 19 | 14:03 | 0:44 | 1:41 | 4 | 0 |
 Jordan MartinookCAR | 20 | 13:45 | 0:41 | 1:09 | 2 | 3 |
 Jordan StaalCAR | 20 | 13:35 | 0:41 | 1:08 | 4 | 3 |
 Corey PerryTBL | 19 | 13:02 | 0:41 | 1:08 | 3 | 2 |
 Mike ReillyCAR | 18 | 12:31 | 0:42 | 1:18 | 3 | 0 |
 Pontus HolmbergTBL | 19 | 12:03 | 0:38 | 1:18 | 2 | 2 |
 Eric RobinsonCAR | 14 | 10:13 | 0:44 | 1:03 | 2 | 1 |
 Nick PaulTBL | 15 | 9:57 | 0:40 | 1:16 | 2 | 2 |
 Mark JankowskiCAR | 14 | 9:53 | 0:42 | 1:05 | 2 | 1 |
 William CarrierCAR | 12 | 9:13 | 0:46 | 1:10 | 1 | 0 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsTBL | 12 | 8:20 | 0:42 | 1:10 | 0 | 4 |