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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 14, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.

TBL winsCAR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:09Shot by Jarvis, saved by Vasilevskiy
  3. P1 0:36Goal by Svechnikov (Aho, Walker)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Guentzel, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser · CAR Martinook, Aho, Walker, Miller, Svechnikov

  4. P1 1:07Shot by Chatfield, saved by Vasilevskiy
  5. P1 1:12Shot by Miller, saved by Vasilevskiy
  6. P1 1:23Shot by Hall, saved by Vasilevskiy
  7. P1 2:01Shot by Jankowski, saved by Vasilevskiy
  8. P1 3:02Shot by McDonagh, saved by Andersen
  9. P1 3:04Shot by Gourde, saved by Andersen
  10. P1 3:28Shot by McDonagh, saved by Andersen
  11. P1 4:03Shot by Miller, saved by Vasilevskiy
  12. P1 5:51Shot by Kucherov, saved by Andersen
  13. P1 6:24Shot by Gourde, saved by Andersen
  14. P1 6:25Shot by Girgensons, saved by Andersen
  15. P1 6:27Svechnikov: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Girgensons, Cernak, Holmberg · CAR Reilly, Aho, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Nikishin

  16. P1 8:19Shot by Hedman, saved by Andersen5v4
  17. P1 10:40Gourde: Hooking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL Perry, Bjorkstrand, Paul, Raddysh, D'Astous · CAR Jankowski, Martinook, Ehlers, Aho, Walker, Miller

  18. P1 10:42Shot by Jarvis, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  19. P1 12:40Shot by Blake, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  20. P1 14:29Jarvis: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Girgensons, Cernak, Holmberg · CAR Aho, Miller, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Nikishin

  21. P1 14:29Jarvis: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Girgensons, Cernak, Holmberg · CAR Aho, Miller, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Nikishin

  22. P1 14:29Girgensons: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Girgensons, Cernak, Holmberg · CAR Aho, Miller, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Nikishin

  23. P1 14:42Shot by Point, saved by Andersen5v4
  24. P1 16:17Shot by Hagel, saved by Andersen5v4
  25. P1 17:00Shot by Blake, saved by Vasilevskiy
  26. P1 17:06Shot by Nikishin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  27. P1 17:25Shot by Aho, saved by Vasilevskiy
  28. P1 17:28Goal by Aho (Svechnikov, Miller)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Bjorkstrand, Cernak, Holmberg · CAR Ehlers, Aho, Walker, Miller, Svechnikov

  29. P1 18:44Shot by Moser, saved by Andersen
  30. P1 0:00Period end
  31. P2 0:00Period start
  32. P2 1:45Shot by Hagel, saved by Andersen
  33. P2 3:19Shot by Kucherov, saved by Andersen
  34. P2 3:27Shot by Kucherov, saved by Andersen
  35. P2 4:32Holmberg: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Gourde, Cernak, Hagel, Holmberg · CAR Aho, Chatfield, Miller, Svechnikov, Jarvis

  36. P2 4:32Aho: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Gourde, Cernak, Hagel, Holmberg · CAR Aho, Chatfield, Miller, Svechnikov, Jarvis

  37. P2 5:06Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Vasilevskiy4v4
  38. P2 5:41Shot by Ehlers, saved by Vasilevskiy4v4
  39. P2 6:13Shot by Blake, saved by Vasilevskiy4v4
  40. P2 6:48Shot by Chatfield, saved by Vasilevskiy
  41. P2 8:36Shot by Staal, saved by Vasilevskiy
  42. P2 9:05Walker: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Cernak, Goncalves · CAR Staal, Martinook, Ehlers, Walker, Miller

  43. P2 9:20Hagel: Hooking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Bjorkstrand, Cirelli, Hagel, Goncalves · CAR Jankowski, Slavin, Chatfield, Robinson

  44. P2 12:13Shot by Paul, saved by Andersen
  45. P2 12:28Shot by Nikishin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  46. P2 12:31Shot by Jankowski, saved by Vasilevskiy
  47. P2 13:16Shot by Walker, saved by Vasilevskiy
  48. P2 13:38Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Vasilevskiy
  49. P2 14:02Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Vasilevskiy
  50. P2 14:10Goal by Gourde (Hedman, Holmberg)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Gourde, Raddysh, Hagel, Holmberg · CAR Aho, Chatfield, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Nikishin

  51. P2 14:19Shot by Hagel, saved by Andersen
  52. P2 15:31Goal by D'Astous (Point, Goncalves)+19 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Point, D'Astous, Goncalves · CAR Jankowski, Carrier, Walker, Robinson, Miller

  53. P2 16:34Shot by Chatfield, saved by Vasilevskiy
  54. P2 0:00Period end
  55. P3 0:00Period start
  56. P3 1:15Shot by Ehlers, saved by Vasilevskiy
  57. P3 1:43Shot by Hall, saved by Vasilevskiy
  58. P3 2:45Shot by Carrier, saved by Vasilevskiy
  59. P3 2:45Shot by Carrier, saved by Vasilevskiy
  60. P3 6:18Shot by Walker, saved by Vasilevskiy
  61. P3 8:12Shot by Kucherov, saved by Andersen
  62. P3 9:18Goal by Martinook (Ehlers, Reilly)+25 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Perry, Hedman, Bjorkstrand, Paul, Cernak · CAR Staal, Reilly, Martinook, Ehlers, Nikishin

  63. P3 10:17Shot by Blake, saved by Vasilevskiy
  64. P3 12:54Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Vasilevskiy
  65. P3 17:04Shot by Staal, saved by Vasilevskiy
  66. P3 17:23Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Vasilevskiy
  67. P3 18:23Shot by Kucherov, saved by Andersen6v5
  68. P3 18:29Goal by Stankoven (Hall)6v5+8 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Perry, Kucherov, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser · CAR Hall, Slavin, Chatfield, Stankoven, Blake

  69. P3 0:00Period end6v5
  70. P3 0:00Final6v5