Tue, Mar 17, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Islanders 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 212 | 18 | 014 | 334 |
| TOR | 08 | 18 | 011 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15NYIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 9:43NYICalum RitchiePPGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Matthew Schaefer · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 4:40TORSteven LorentzAssists: Bo Groulx · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 11:57NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.14 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:30TORNick Robertson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:18NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:34TORBrandon Carlo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:47NYIAdam Pelech: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:13TORDakota Joshua: Holding2 min
- P2 14:39NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:12TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:12NYIKyle MacLean: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:12TORMorgan Rielly: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:57TORJohn Tavares: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Groulx won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Barzal – Heineman10:24
xG 1.04–0.35 (75%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Schenn – Duclair – Holmstrom9:24
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Palat – MacLean8:24
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Ritchie9:57
xG 0.29–0.66 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Soucy12:37
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Pulock – Schaefer13:23
xG 0.30–0.72 (30%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo12:50
xG 0.12–0.57 (18%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Lorentz – Quillan5:50
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Domi – Knies – Cowan7:34
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Joshua – Groulx – Robertson6:16
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Maccelli12:09
xG 0.57–1.23 (32%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Myers2:55
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- McCabe – Carlo12:41
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:53
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).