Wed, Mar 18, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Carolina Hurricanes 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 17 | 413 | 03 | 535 |
| CAR | 115 | 114 | 314 | 11 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:34CARJordan MartinookSHAssists: Jordan Staal, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 9:57PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 16:51CARJackson BlakeAssists: Taylor Hall, Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 0:59PITErik KarlssonPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 3:27CARTaylor HallAssists: Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 7:16PITBryan RustUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 12:59CARLogan StankovenPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Jackson Blake · Snap, 0.22 xG3–4
- P3 14:46PITErik KarlssonAssists: Parker Wotherspoon, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 15:09PITBen KindelAssists: Anthony Mantha, Ilya Solovyov · Snap, 0.15 xG5–4
- P3 17:09CARK'Andre MillerAssists: Sean Walker, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.04 xG5–5
- OT 4:31CARSean WalkerGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis · Slap, 0.12 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:24CARMark Jankowski: Holding2 min
- P2 11:55CARK'Andre Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:47PITParker Wotherspoon: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:28CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 19:28CARAndrei Svechnikov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:28PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:29CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:17PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Dewar – Soderblom8:37
xG 1.48–0.88 (63%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell11:28
xG 0.51–0.54 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 3–0
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel9:24
xG 0.35–0.71 (33%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov12:08
xG 0.22–0.94 (19%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Solovyov11:24
xG 1.14–0.78 (59%)attempts 7–19goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon15:34
xG 0.70–0.87 (45%)attempts 15–19goals 3–1
- Letang – Shea18:25
xG 0.38–1.86 (17%)attempts 10–29goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Ehlers11:42
xG 0.84–0.22 (79%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis12:49
xG 0.91–0.55 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 0–3
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake11:44
xG 0.88–0.81 (52%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson5:13
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller17:38
xG 2.05–0.31 (87%)attempts 35–10goals 1–0
- Slavin – Chatfield14:25
xG 0.66–0.79 (46%)attempts 15–15goals 0–3
- Reilly – Nikishin11:53
xG 0.59–1.11 (35%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).