Fri, Mar 20, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 317 | 010 | 11 | 436 |
| TOR | 14 | 111 | 111 | 00 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:48TORDakota JoshuaAssists: Bo Groulx, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 5:57CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:35CAREric RobinsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 13:47TORJohn TavaresAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 17:40CARK'Andre MillerSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 13:50TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 0:41CARAlexander NikishinGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:07TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:16TORNick Robertson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:39CARAlexander Nikishin: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:57TORBrandon Carlo: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 12:35TORTroy Stecher: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 16:14CARSean Walker: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:10TOREaston Cowan: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Groulx won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake9:22
xG 1.39–0.35 (80%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis9:56
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers11:35
xG 0.29–0.47 (38%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson7:14
xG 0.03–0.32 (9%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Nikishin7:22
xG 1.03–0.41 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Walker – Miller15:20
xG 0.62–0.17 (79%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Slavin – Chatfield17:45
xG 0.39–0.73 (35%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Robertson – Cowan6:54
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Lorentz – Quillan7:22
xG 0.11–0.22 (32%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Domi – Nylander – Knies9:46
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Joshua – Groulx – Maccelli7:00
xG 0.36–0.95 (28%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – McCabe10:31
xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- McCabe – Carlo3:29
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Rielly – Carlo8:24
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).