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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 20, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.

TOR winsCAR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 3:07Ekman-Larsson: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Joshua, Groulx, Maccelli · CAR Staal, Martinook, Ehlers, Walker, Miller

  3. P1 5:38Shot by Stecher, saved by Bussi
  4. P1 6:28Shot by Nylander, saved by Bussi
  5. P1 7:18Shot by Walker, saved by Woll
  6. P1 7:19Shot by Blake, saved by Woll
  7. P1 11:12Shot by Hall, saved by Woll
  8. P1 11:45Shot by Groulx, saved by Bussi
  9. P1 11:48Goal by Joshua (Groulx, Maccelli)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Joshua, Groulx, Maccelli · CAR Staal, Reilly, Martinook, Ehlers, Nikishin

  10. P1 14:16Robertson: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Carlo, Robertson, Cowan · CAR Staal, Martinook, Aho, Walker, Miller

  11. P1 14:39Nikishin: Slashing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Carlo, Lorentz · CAR Staal, Aho, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Nikishin

  12. P1 15:00Shot by Chatfield, saved by Woll4v4
  13. P1 15:28Shot by Aho, saved by Woll4v4
  14. P1 18:40Shot by Jarvis, saved by Woll
  15. P1 19:48Shot by Reilly, saved by Woll
  16. P1 19:51Shot by Nikishin, saved by Woll
  17. P1 0:00Period end
  18. P2 0:00Period start
  19. P2 0:36Shot by Joshua, saved by Bussi
  20. P2 1:57Carlo: High sticking double minor (4 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Carlo, Robertson, Cowan · CAR Jankowski, Carrier, Walker, Robinson, Miller

  21. P2 2:00Shot by Nikishin, saved by Woll4v5
  22. P2 2:06Shot by Stecher, saved by Bussi4v5
  23. P2 3:35Shot by Walker, saved by Woll4v5
  24. P2 4:13Shot by Hall, saved by Woll4v5
  25. P2 4:27Shot by Hall, saved by Woll4v5
  26. P2 5:00Shot by Walker, saved by Woll4v5
  27. P2 5:04Shot by Nikishin, saved by Woll4v5
  28. P2 5:57Goal by Staal (Jarvis, Aho)4v5+24 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Stecher, Groulx, Knies · CAR Staal, Ehlers, Aho, Jarvis, Nikishin

  29. P2 6:24Shot by Carrier, saved by Woll
  30. P2 8:00Shot by Walker, saved by Woll
  31. P2 8:02Shot by Staal, saved by Woll
  32. P2 8:17Shot by Groulx, saved by Bussi
  33. P2 9:22Shot by Robinson, saved by Woll
  34. P2 10:31Shot by Carlo, saved by Bussi
  35. P2 10:53Shot by Ehlers, saved by Woll
  36. P2 11:39Shot by McCabe, saved by Bussi
  37. P2 12:35Stecher: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway (0 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Stecher, Groulx, Maccelli · CAR Carrier, Walker, Robinson, Miller, Stankoven

  38. P2 12:35Goal by Robinson, unassistedother+19 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Stecher, Groulx, Maccelli · CAR Carrier, Walker, Robinson, Miller, Stankoven

  39. P2 13:21Shot by Stankoven, saved by Woll
  40. P2 13:23Shot by Stankoven, saved by Woll
  41. P2 13:23Shot by Blake, saved by Woll
  42. P2 13:47Goal by Tavares (Jarnkrok, McCabe)+19 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Lorentz · CAR Slavin, Aho, Chatfield, Svechnikov, Jarvis

  43. P2 14:58Shot by Robertson, saved by Bussi
  44. P2 15:05Shot by Tavares, saved by Bussi
  45. P2 16:14Walker: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Domi, Nylander, Knies · CAR Aho, Walker, Miller, Svechnikov, Jarvis

  46. P2 17:05Shot by Rielly, saved by Bussi5v4
  47. P2 17:07Shot by Knies, saved by Bussi5v4
  48. P2 17:40Goal by Miller, unassisted5v4+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Maccelli, Knies · CAR Aho, Chatfield, Miller, Jarvis

  49. P2 18:26Shot by Cowan, saved by Bussi
  50. P2 0:00Period end
  51. P3 0:00Period start
  52. P3 2:22Shot by Tavares, saved by Bussi
  53. P3 4:29Shot by Ehlers, saved by Woll
  54. P3 5:41Shot by Blake, saved by Woll
  55. P3 7:44Shot by Ehlers, saved by Woll
  56. P3 8:08Shot by Benoit, saved by Bussi
  57. P3 8:29Shot by Jarvis, saved by Woll
  58. P3 8:39Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Bussi
  59. P3 9:16Shot by Nylander, saved by Bussi
  60. P3 10:10Cowan: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Stecher, Benoit, Cowan, Quillan · CAR Aho, Walker, Miller, Svechnikov, Jarvis

  61. P3 10:27Shot by Lorentz, saved by Bussi4v5
  62. P3 10:56Shot by Groulx, saved by Bussi4v5
  63. P3 11:25Shot by Stankoven, saved by Woll4v5
  64. P3 11:34Shot by Blake, saved by Woll4v5
  65. P3 13:39Shot by Nylander, saved by Bussi
  66. P3 13:40Shot by Domi, saved by Bussi
  67. P3 13:50Goal by Nylander (Maccelli)+29 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Domi, Nylander, Carlo, Maccelli · CAR Slavin, Aho, Walker, Svechnikov, Jarvis

  68. P3 15:04Shot by Slavin, saved by Woll
  69. P3 15:14Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Bussi
  70. P3 17:43Shot by Hall, saved by Woll
  71. P3 17:51Shot by Domi, saved by Bussi
  72. P3 18:18Shot by Walker, saved by Woll
  73. P3 19:47Shot by Aho, saved by Woll
  74. P3 0:00Period end
  75. OT 0:00Period start
  76. OT 0:41Goal by Nikishin (Jarvis, Aho)3v3+49 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Nylander · CAR Aho, Jarvis, Nikishin

  77. OT 0:41Period end4v3
  78. OT 0:41Final4v3