Sat, Mar 28, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 08 | 09 | 228 |
| TBL | 08 | 211 | 28 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18OTTDylan CozensAssists: Tyler Kleven, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 4:25OTTJordan SpenceAssists: Nick Cousins, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 3:37TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Emil Lilleberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 5:14TBLCharle-Edouard D'AstousAssists: Yanni Gourde, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 8:51TBLEmil LillebergGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel, Gage Goncalves · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 17:48TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Corey Perry, Emil Lilleberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:09OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min
- P1 18:14OTTWarren Foegele: Holding2 min
- P2 7:40TBLEmil Lilleberg: Interference2 min
- P2 8:09TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:09OTTCarter Yakemchuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:09OTTDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:52TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P2 19:23OTTBrady Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Amadio – Pinto7:20
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund5:23
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig7:35
xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle7:40
xG 0.09–0.31 (23%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven3:20
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kleven – Yakemchuk2:34
xG 0.03–0.01 (77%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Spence – Yakemchuk8:21
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Guentzel – Point8:34
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Goncalves10:24
xG 0.47–0.46 (50%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg11:14
xG 0.34–0.43 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestD'Astous – Lilleberg12:20
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 4–0
- Raddysh – Moser16:41
xG 1.08–0.95 (53%)attempts 35–18goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Cernak11:03
xG 0.57–0.72 (44%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).