Sat, Mar 28, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 49 | 28 | 626 |
| PIT | 14 | 15 | 13 | 312 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12PITAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 2:10DALJustin HryckowianAssists: Colin Blackwell, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 2:58PITErik KarlssonAssists: Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:12DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 10:12DALMikko RantanenPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 11:38DALLian BichselGWGAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Oskar Bäck · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 8:54PITNoel AcciariAssists: Elmer Soderblom, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 16:52DALMavrik BourqueENAssists: Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.33 xG5–3
- P3 18:50DALMavrik BourqueENAssists: Jamie Benn, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.47 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:54DALColin Blackwell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:53PITAnthony Mantha: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:16PITVille Koivunen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:38PITRutger McGroarty: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:45PITParker Wotherspoon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:45PITElmer Soderblom: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:17DALNils Lundkvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:20DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min
- P3 10:53DALMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rakell won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Robertson – Bourque11:14
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Blackwell – Hryckowian7:04
xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Bastian – Bäck – Hyry3:23
xG 0.06–0.13 (29%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bunting – Rantanen – Johnston10:42
xG 0.24–0.42 (36%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Bichsel11:29
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Lindell – Harley2:20
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen12:13
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Dewar – Soderblom6:17
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Novak – Brazeau – Chinakhov6:16
xG 0.36–0.20 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Rust – Rakell – Mantha6:33
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Dewar – Koivunen – McGroarty2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon14:05
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
- Clifton – Shea10:42
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Letang – Girard14:34
xG 0.24–0.57 (29%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).