Sat, Mar 28, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Washington Capitals 5, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 25 | 17 | 04 | 1 | 522 |
| VGK | 012 | 310 | 16 | 01 | 0 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06WSHHendrix LapierreAssists: Ivan Miroshnichenko, Brandon Duhaime · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:55WSHJustin SourdifPPAssists: Connor McMichael, Cole Hutson · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 6:49WSHAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Ryan Leonard, Justin Sourdif · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 10:38VGKNic DowdSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 11:03VGKRasmus AnderssonSHAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P2 13:18VGKJack EichelAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 0:31VGKMitch MarnerPPAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 8:54WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Cole Hutson, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.07 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WSH Dylan Strome scored
- 2. VGK Rasmus Andersson stopped
- 3. WSH Ryan Leonard stopped
- 4. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 5. WSH Pierre-Luc Dubois stopped
- 6. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev stopped
Penalties (9)
- P2 1:31VGKBrett Howden: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:29WSHRasmus Sandin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:46VGKBrayden McNabb: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:49VGKKeegan Kolesar: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:53WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:36WSHDylan Strome: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 6:31VGKRasmus Andersson: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:58VGKMitch Marner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 4:35VGKNoah Hanifin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBeauvillier – Sourdif – Leonard6:41
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas4:14
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Miroshnichenko5:14
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Duhaime – Sourdif – Leonard2:32
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Roy – Fehérváry2:19
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Sandin2:51
xG 0.13–0.22 (36%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Fehérváry – Sandin12:47
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel11:39
xG 0.86–0.15 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Hertl – Sissons6:48
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 6–3goals 0–2
- Dowd – Kolesar – Smith7:21
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Marner – Howden – Dorofeyev11:45
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Lauzon12:49
xG 1.04–0.29 (78%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:41
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson4:19
xG 0.20–0.00 (99%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).