Tue, Mar 31, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 16 | 28 | 423 |
| TBL | 18 | 012 | 017 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:25MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Ivan Demidov, Cole Caufield · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:41TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 12:49MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 17:54MTLMike MathesonENUnassisted · Slap, 0.28 xG3–1
- P3 18:54MTLNick SuzukiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–1
Penalties (31)
- P1 3:06MTLJayden Struble: Holding2 min
- P1 9:24MTLKaiden Guhle: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:55MTLNoah Dobson: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:55TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:25TBLJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:03TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:35MTLAlex Newhook: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:09TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:45TBLEmil Lilleberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:45MTLZachary Bolduc: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:45TBLJake Guentzel: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:45MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:45TBLEmil Lilleberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:45MTLZachary Bolduc: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:45MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:45TBLJake Guentzel: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:54MTLNick Suzuki: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:27MTLJake Evans: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:27TBLDarren Raddysh: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23TBLScott Sabourin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23TBLGage Goncalves: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23MTLPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23TBLEmil Lilleberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23TBLNick Paul: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23MTLJoseph Veleno: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00TBLRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:01
xG 0.83–0.49 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Anderson – Evans – Bolduc7:33
xG 0.25–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Veleno6:28
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov8:55
xG 0.17–0.86 (17%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson8:16
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Guhle – Xhekaj5:30
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Xhekaj – Hutson3:38
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Girgensons – Holmberg10:11
xG 0.73–0.23 (76%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point2:26
xG 0.02–0.00 (84%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Sabourin – Paul7:24
xG 0.00–0.06 (4%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Point – Goncalves7:18
xG 0.26–0.39 (39%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak11:08
xG 1.15–0.20 (85%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Moser14:05
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- D'Astous – Lilleberg11:54
xG 0.07–0.35 (16%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).