Tue, Mar 31, 2026·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 3, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 27 | 113 | 326 |
| FLA | 518 | 17 | 04 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:08FLANoah GregorAssists: Seth Jones, Tomas Nosek · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 1:06FLAMackie SamoskevichPPAssists: Seth Jones, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 9:09FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 14:02FLAA.J. GreerGWGAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Donovan Sebrango · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P1 14:36FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.18 xG0–5
- P2 1:40OTTDrake BathersonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P2 12:41FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.18 xG1–6
- P2 15:14OTTJordan SpenceAssists: Tim Stützle, Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–6
- P3 4:29OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Ridly Greig, Lassi Thomson · Snap, 0.08 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:15OTTShane Pinto: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:05OTTArtem Zub: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:13OTTTyler Kleven: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:04FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:55FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:55FLAVinnie Hinostroza: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:26FLANoah Gregor: Match penalty5 min
- P3 15:22FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEller – Foegele – Zetterlund3:50
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Amadio – Greig – Stützle2:41
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 2–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto4:46
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Giroux – Cousins – Pinto2:30
xG 0.00–0.07 (6%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZub – Matinpalo2:16
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Thomson – Matinpalo6:10
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Thomson – Zub2:04
xG 0.01–0.04 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk9:46
xG 1.13–0.28 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 2–2
- Greer – Luostarinen – Samoskevich9:22
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Nosek – Gregor – Boqvist8:07
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Hinostroza – Kunin – Reinhardt8:40
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling13:15
xG 1.04–0.17 (86%)attempts 17–9goals 2–2
- Jones – Sebrango12:01
xG 0.64–0.37 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Benning12:19
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).