Thu, Apr 2, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 08 | 15 | 324 |
| TBL | 111 | 39 | 213 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Gage Goncalves · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 7:01PITRickard RakellAssists: Samuel Girard, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 16:10PITEgor ChinakhovAssists: Bryan Rust, Samuel Girard · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 0:11TBLAnthony CirelliSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 14:08TBLBrayden PointAssists: Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 19:05TBLZemgus GirgensonsGWGAssists: Yanni Gourde, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 13:50TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 15:33TBLAnthony CirelliENAssists: Gage Goncalves, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–6
- P3 19:58PITEgor ChinakhovPPAssists: Kris Letang, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.10 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:52PITConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P1 18:24TBLDarren Raddysh: Holding2 min
- P3 1:04PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:04TBLOliver Bjorkstrand: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:04PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:35TBLEmil Lilleberg: Holding2 min
- P3 10:15PITConnor Dewar: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:37TBLDarren Raddysh: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:10TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Novak9:25
xG 0.95–0.43 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel7:06
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Acciari – Dewar – Soderblom8:04
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Chinakhov10:05
xG 0.15–0.68 (18%)attempts 4–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Girard14:01
xG 0.78–0.63 (55%)attempts 11–18goals 2–1
- Clifton – Shea12:32
xG 0.22–0.64 (26%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon16:18
xG 0.93–1.54 (38%)attempts 14–21goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Girgensons – Holmberg9:54
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Bjorkstrand – Cirelli – Goncalves7:37
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Perry – Paul – Chaffee8:36
xG 0.35–0.07 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point11:47
xG 1.38–1.18 (54%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak11:24
xG 0.67–0.12 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- D'Astous – Lilleberg15:19
xG 0.76–0.59 (56%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Raddysh – D'Astous2:40
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).