Sat, Apr 4, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Minnesota Wild 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 19 | 16 | 423 |
| OTT | 014 | 08 | 112 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:45MINJonas BrodinAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 15:35MINRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 15:31MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 12:46MINJake MiddletonAssists: Quinn Hughes, Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.13 xG4–0
- P3 16:43OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Lassi Thomson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:29MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
- P1 19:47MINZach Bogosian: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:30MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30OTTRidly Greig: Holding2 min
- P2 19:27OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00MINJake Middleton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00OTTNick Cousins: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:24
xG 1.01–0.29 (78%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Foligno – Foligno – McCarron9:05
xG 0.03–0.09 (27%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:08
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Yurov10:37
xG 0.35–0.57 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Faber15:39
xG 0.94–0.74 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin10:17
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Middleton – Hughes4:09
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig12:41
xG 0.91–0.49 (65%)attempts 25–7goals 0–1
- Cousins – Batherson – Pinto3:13
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto8:19
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Cousins – Foegele4:24
xG 0.06–0.04 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Sanderson6:28
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Crotty – Spence3:28
xG 0.29–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Crotty – Thomson7:12
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).