Sat, Apr 4, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
New York Islanders 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 14 | 12 | 110 | 316 |
| CAR | 113 | 218 | 19 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:17NYIMarc GatcombAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:07CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sean Walker, K'Andre Miller · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 2:15NYIMaxim ShabanovAssists: Calum Ritchie, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 11:15CARJackson BlakeAssists: Logan Stankoven, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 16:17CARSebastian AhoSHAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 0:24CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 18:23NYIAnders LeeAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:04NYIMarc Gatcomb: Holding2 min
- P2 4:58NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:19NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:19CARSeth Jarvis: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:44NYIRyan Pulock: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:03CARAlexander Nikishin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Cizikas – Palat – Gatcomb8:08
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Schenn – Ritchie – Shabanov11:23
xG 0.21–0.69 (24%)attempts 3–12goals 1–1
- Pageau – Barzal – Holmstrom7:38
xG 0.53–1.01 (34%)attempts 4–16goals 0–2
- Lee – Horvat – Heineman9:10
xG 0.00–0.51 (0%)attempts 1–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Schaefer3:01
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pelech – Soucy10:19
xG 0.25–0.13 (65%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Schaefer2:34
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake12:04
xG 0.89–0.24 (79%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:41
xG 1.06–0.60 (64%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers9:36
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson8:04
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Nikishin13:41
xG 0.89–0.22 (80%)attempts 21–7goals 1–1
- Slavin – Chatfield15:24
xG 1.07–0.67 (62%)attempts 25–9goals 0–0
- Walker – Miller16:28
xG 0.78–0.61 (56%)attempts 19–6goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).