Mon, Apr 6, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 18 | 09 | 225 |
| BUF | 211 | 114 | 15 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42BUFAlex TuchAssists: Bowen Byram, Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:45TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Darren Raddysh · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 14:04BUFJosh NorrisAssists: Josh Doan, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 3:56TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Brayden Point, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 7:38BUFJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Bowen Byram, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 18:06BUFJack QuinnENAssists: Jason Zucker, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:56TBLPontus Holmberg: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 3:33BUFAlex Tuch: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 7:19TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:03BUFJordan Greenway: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:03BUFJosh Dunne: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:03TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:37BUFJosh Doan: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:25TBLZemgus Girgensons: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:06BUFJack Quinn: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:05TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P2 16:32BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:40BUFZach Benson: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:40TBLJake Guentzel: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point5:51
xG 0.45–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves4:54
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Sabourin – Chaffee3:15
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Bjorkstrand – Paul2:53
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser10:57
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- D'Astous – Lilleberg10:21
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Raddysh – D'Astous2:00
xG 0.01–0.16 (7%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Quinn5:59
xG 0.26–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Dunne6:44
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs8:41
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Norris – Doan – Benson8:48
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power9:34
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power2:46
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley7:34
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).