Mon, Apr 6, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
63%
21%
BUF winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Kucherov–Guentzel–Point | Gourde–Girgensons–Holmberg | Kucherov–Point–Goncalves | Bjorkstrand–Paul–Goncalves | Perry–Sabourin–Chaffee | Guentzel–Bjorkstrand–Paul | Perry–Paul–Chaffee | Perry–Sabourin–Paul | Raddysh–Moser | D'Astous–Lilleberg | McDonagh–Cernak | Raddysh–D'Astous | Moser–Lilleberg | Cernak–D'Astous | McDonagh–Raddysh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norris–Doan–Benson | 1:200.02–0.17 | 1:080.00–0.00 | 1:530.17–0.28 | 0:590.00–0.09 | 1:340.06–0.09 | 3:160.24–0.36 | 2:320.07–0.14 | 1:350.19–0.01 | 0:310.00–0.14 | ||||||
| Tuch–Thompson–Krebs | 1:130.00–0.08 | 1:560.08–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.13 | 0:560.04–0.00 | 0:370.08–0.01 | 2:420.02–0.17 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 4:050.20–0.01 | |||||||
| Greenway–Malenstyn–Dunne | 0:590.00–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.00 | 1:030.00–0.05 | 1:210.00–0.00 | 1:090.00–0.00 | 2:370.00–0.01 | 1:030.16–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Zucker–McLeod–Quinn | 1:280.03–0.00 | 1:120.16–0.02 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 1:110.00–0.00 | 1:110.00–0.02 | 3:140.03–0.00 | 0:570.16–0.01 | ||||||||
| Zucker–Norris–Quinn | 0:440.00–0.10 | ||||||||||||||
| Byram–Power | 1:200.00–0.00 | 1:130.00–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.02 | 0:490.04–0.00 | 1:370.06–0.09 | 0:340.16–0.00 | 2:260.00–0.06 | 2:510.06–0.05 | 1:260.16–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:410.08–0.00 | ||||
| Samuelsson–Dahlin | 3:200.02–0.30 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 2:180.33–0.38 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 4:030.18–0.56 | 1:140.01–0.00 | 1:300.00–0.00 | 1:220.16–0.01 | ||||||
| Schenn–Stanley | 1:330.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 2:380.00–0.08 | 0:440.00–0.05 | 1:180.00–0.16 | 2:490.00–0.00 | 2:370.19–0.02 | 0:310.00–0.05 | |||||||
| Dahlin–Power | 0:420.00–0.00 | 0:420.02–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.00 | 0:540.07–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Dahlin–Byram | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:590.00–0.09 | 1:000.00–0.09 | 0:500.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Power | 0:330.03–0.00 | 0:500.01–0.14 | 0:590.03–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.14 | |||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Byram | 0:500.00–0.00 | 0:530.06–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 21 | 25:45 | 1:14 | 3:09 | 3 | 2 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 27 | 24:54 | 0:55 | 1:44 | 8 | 3 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 23 | 23:30 | 1:01 | 2:48 | 6 | 0 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 24 | 23:01 | 0:58 | 2:01 | 3 | 4 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 26 | 22:44 | 0:52 | 2:22 | 1 | 6 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 27 | 21:16 | 0:47 | 2:13 | 2 | 3 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 23 | 20:11 | 0:53 | 2:08 | 5 | 1 |
 J.J. MoserTBL | 23 | 19:54 | 0:52 | 1:52 | 1 | 2 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 26 | 19:48 | 0:46 | 1:25 | 0 | 5 |
 Gage GoncalvesTBL | 24 | 19:17 | 0:48 | 1:20 | 2 | 3 |
 Nick PaulTBL | 25 | 18:05 | 0:43 | 1:07 | 8 | 2 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousTBL | 23 | 18:02 | 0:47 | 1:52 | 3 | 0 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 28 | 17:59 | 0:39 | 1:06 | 4 | 6 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 21 | 17:56 | 0:51 | 2:11 | 4 | 3 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 25 | 17:44 | 0:43 | 1:13 | 1 | 4 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 23 | 17:31 | 0:46 | 1:36 | 1 | 3 |
 Josh NorrisBUF | 21 | 17:10 | 0:49 | 1:27 | 4 | 2 |
 Emil LillebergTBL | 24 | 16:58 | 0:42 | 1:26 | 4 | 1 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 22 | 16:44 | 0:46 | 1:59 | 1 | 3 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandTBL | 18 | 14:57 | 0:50 | 1:27 | 4 | 3 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 23 | 14:53 | 0:39 | 1:22 | 1 | 3 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 20 | 14:40 | 0:44 | 1:12 | 0 | 3 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 18 | 14:24 | 0:48 | 1:40 | 5 | 0 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 20 | 13:58 | 0:42 | 1:27 | 1 | 3 |
 Jason ZuckerBUF | 17 | 13:44 | 0:48 | 1:36 | 5 | 0 |
 Luke SchennBUF | 17 | 12:54 | 0:46 | 1:26 | 0 | 3 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 19 | 12:53 | 0:41 | 1:04 | 2 | 2 |
 Logan StanleyBUF | 16 | 12:40 | 0:48 | 1:26 | 0 | 3 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 20 | 12:37 | 0:38 | 0:59 | 4 | 4 |
 Corey PerryTBL | 16 | 12:36 | 0:47 | 1:33 | 2 | 0 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsTBL | 18 | 11:29 | 0:38 | 1:22 | 1 | 3 |
 Jordan GreenwayBUF | 19 | 11:19 | 0:36 | 0:52 | 0 | 4 |
 Pontus HolmbergTBL | 15 | 8:21 | 0:33 | 1:11 | 1 | 1 |
 Josh DunneBUF | 12 | 7:58 | 0:40 | 1:07 | 1 | 1 |
 Mitchell ChaffeeTBL | 10 | 6:23 | 0:38 | 1:01 | 1 | 0 |
 Scott SabourinTBL | 9 | 5:58 | 0:40 | 0:59 | 0 | 0 |