Thu, Apr 9, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 16 | 110 | 327 |
| DET | 14 | 312 | 26 | 622 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:24PHIChristian DvorakAssists: Porter Martone, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 0:32DETMoritz SeiderPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 1:50DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 4:56DETDylan LarkinSHGWGAssists: Albert Johansson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 9:25PHIPorter MartonePPAssists: Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 7:01DETPatrick KaneAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 11:39DETDylan LarkinAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.11 xG2–6
- P3 18:09PHILuke GlendeningAssists: Denver Barkey, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:07PHIMatvei Michkov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 2:45DETJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P1 9:57PHITyson Foerster: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:26DETBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PHIPorter Martone: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:15PHIOwen Tippett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:43DETMoritz Seider: Holding2 min
- P2 4:15DETJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:58DETJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:20DETAlbert Johansson: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:20PHITrevor Zegras: Elbowing2 min
- P3 13:15DETSimon Edvinsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Bump – Michkov7:24
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Couturier – Glendening – Barkey6:43
xG 0.28–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Martone9:08
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Foerster10:30
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim13:10
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Seeler – Andrae10:41
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- York – Drysdale14:03
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie10:44
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Shine – Kasper5:32
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat10:12
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Perron – Compher – Mazur9:19
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson12:29
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Faulk14:17
xG 0.03–0.54 (6%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson11:59
xG 0.00–0.76 (0%)attempts 5–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).