Thu, Apr 9, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 13 | 16 | 17 | 316 |
| NYI | 224 | 212 | 18 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08NYIBrayden SchennAssists: Calum Ritchie, Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 4:55NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Maxim Shabanov, Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.37 xG0–2
- P1 5:11TORSteven LorentzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 1:57TOREaston CowanPPAssists: John Tavares, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 9:39NYIMatthew SchaeferAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 16:44NYIEmil HeinemanPPGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 10:20NYICalum RitchiePPUnassisted · Snap, 0.49 xG2–5
- P3 14:04TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Matias Maccelli, Luke Haymes · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:50TORMichael Pezzetta: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:36NYICalum Ritchie: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:17TORPhilippe Myers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:01TORNick Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:03TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:39TORSteven Lorentz: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:39TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Jarnkrok – Nylander2:56
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Domi – Knies – Cowan2:01
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Pezzetta – Quillan4:56
xG 0.00–0.03 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Robertson – Haymes8:30
xG 0.36–0.45 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Stecher9:42
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:25
xG 0.09–0.21 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit12:41
xG 0.44–0.57 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Heineman – Shabanov8:30
xG 1.05–0.12 (90%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Cizikas – Palat – Gatcomb7:15
xG 0.92–0.36 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom10:34
xG 1.03–0.56 (65%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barzal – Ritchie9:05
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Schaefer13:09
xG 1.54–0.08 (95%)attempts 24–12goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo13:16
xG 0.96–0.58 (62%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer2:22
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).